The Federal Reserve of the United States made its monetary policy announcement early on Thursday (September 18, 2025) Jakarta time. As market participants anticipated, the Fed reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%.
Following the announcement, both the Nasdaq index and Gold reached all-time highs before witnessing a decline. The Nasdaq, which underwent a price adjustment between the old and new contract months (reference month), set yet another record at 24,584 this morning.
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Similarly, the price of Gold surged to US$3,707 per troy ounce before reversing its course. As of this morning, Gold is priced around US$3,672 per troy ounce.
These movements reflect the market’s reaction to the Fed’s future interest rate outlook. The dot plot released indicated that the Fed plans to cut the interest rate two more times this year, in October and December. This aligns with market projections that have surfaced in recent days, particularly due to weakness in the labor market.
However, a surprising aspect was that for next year, the Fed anticipates only one rate cut. Additionally, the Fed has raised its economic growth forecast for the upcoming year.
Outlook for 2026 led to a decline in Gold prices. The anticipated single rate cut seemed less dovish, especially with the improved economic growth forecast. Being a safe haven asset, Gold faced selling pressure as investors engaged in profit taking. On the other hand, the aggressive interest rate cuts this year and the increased economic growth projections provided a positive sentiment for stock indices, allowing the Nasdaq to achieve record highs.
The Fed’s predictions also contributed to a revival of the US dollar, resulting in downward pressure on EURUSD and GBPUSD, while USDJPY saw an increase.
