The markets experienced significant volatility last week in response to geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the United States (US). US President Donald Trump confirmed that new import tariffs from Canada and Mexico would take effect starting March 4, although the exact extent of these increases is yet to be decided. Additionally, China will also face added import tariffs.
Moreover, the ongoing conflict between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to influence market movements on Monday’s trading session (March 3, 2025).
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GOLD
Profit-taking actions, combined with a strengthening US dollar, led to a drop in gold prices by nearly $79 or 790 pips over the past week, landing at $2,856.99 per barrel. This marks gold’s worst weekly performance in three months.
However, in this morning’s trading session, gold prices rebounded sharply, soaring by almost $20 or 200 pips to reach $2,876.86 per troy ounce before retracting slightly. Market participants are keenly awaiting confirmation of Trump’s plans to raise import tariffs from Canada and Mexico and potentially China on Tuesday. Furthermore, there is tension surrounding whether affected countries will retaliate against the US, raising the risk of an escalated trade war.
This sentiment is likely to continue impacting gold prices during today’s European trading session.
OIL
The possibility of oil imports from Canada facing increased tariffs from the US caused oil prices to rebound from an 11-week low last week. This morning, oil prices climbed back above $70 per barrel.
Positive sentiment also emerged from the release of the Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector, which increased to reflect the highest expansion in three months. This uptick could signal a rise in oil demand from China. Such favorable sentiment is expected to support oil performance during today’s European trading session.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair climbed by 488 points (48.8 pips) to reach 1.04234 in this morning’s trading, recovering from last week’s decline. The conflict between Trump and Zelensky had pressured the EURUSD, but it turned bullish this morning following UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s statement last Sunday that European leaders would assist Ukraine in crafting a peace proposal to be presented to Trump.
This development rekindles hopes for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. During today’s European trading session, the release of eurozone inflation data (Consumer Price Index/CPI) at 17:00 WIB could serve as a pivotal market mover for the EURUSD. Trading Central’s forecast anticipates February inflation growth at 2.4% year-on-year (YoY), down from 2.5% YoY the previous month. Core CPI is also predicted to show a 2.5% YoY increase, lower than January’s 2.7%.
Should the actual data come in below the forecast, it may further exert downward pressure on the EURUSD.
GBPUSD
Optimism surrounding the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict propelled GBPUSD higher this morning to reach 1.26135. Compared to Friday’s closing price, GBPUSD saw an increase of 358 points (35.8 pips).
Additionally, the US’s core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation was reported to grow by 2.6% YoY in January, below the Trading Central forecast of 2.7%, putting further pressure on the US dollar. The data released on Friday night opened the door for the Federal Reserve to potentially cut interest rates twice this year.
This sentiment is expected to influence GBPUSD movements during the European trading session.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair exhibited extreme volatility at the start of today’s trading, briefly rising to 151.022 before declining to 150.241. The release of the core PCE inflation data from the US created negative sentiment for USDJPY.
Conversely, the yen’s strength stems from expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates soon. This sentiment is likely to influence USDJPY performance throughout the day.
Nasdaq
The slower growth of the core PCE inflation in the United States led to a rebound for the Nasdaq during last Friday’s trading after previously hitting the lowest point in over three months.
Today, the Nasdaq is moving with high volatility within the range of 20,839 – 21,034, with potential for further pressure as market participants await clarity on President Trump’s import tariff plans scheduled for Tuesday.
