The market movements at the start of the past week were quite intriguing in response to the import tariff policies implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump. Initially, U.S. stock indices experienced a downturn while Gold saw a notable rise; however, the trend reversed shortly after. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained strong despite some pressures.
Market participants are carefully evaluating the potential negative impact on the U.S. economy if trade tensions escalate again, which will continue to affect trading sessions on Tuesday (July 15, 2025). Additionally, the release of economic growth data (gross domestic product/GDP) from China this morning significantly influenced market movements. For Q2 2025, China’s GDP was reported to have grown by 5.2% year-on-year (YoY), slightly lower than the previous quarter’s 5.4% YoY.
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Furthermore, economic data from Europe will also impact market dynamics. Below is the data from Trading Central:
- Eurozone industrial production (month-on-month/May) at 16:00 WIB; forecast 0.8% vs previous -2.4%
- Economic sentiment in Germany (July) at 16:00 WIB; forecast 30 vs previous 47.5
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) fell more than $12 or 120 pips to $3,342.98 per troy ounce early last week after briefly reaching a three-week high of $3,374.89 per troy ounce. The drop was triggered by profit-taking activities; however, today Gold rebounded to $3,361.40 per troy ounce.
Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on imports from countries that had not reached a trade agreement by July 9 raised fears of a renewed trade war. Negotiations are still ongoing until the end of this month, and if no deal is struck, the potential for renewed conflict looms.
This sentiment is likely to provide support for Gold against significant declines, tending to create a bullish outlook.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) plummeted by about $1.9 to $66.81 per barrel at the beginning of the week after experiencing a rise to $69.63, marking the highest level in three weeks.
The decline occurred after President Trump postponed sanctions against buyers of Russian crude oil. Trump granted Russia a 50-day grace period to reach a peace agreement before sanctions are imposed. This sentiment may continue to weigh on Oil during European trading sessions; moreover, the slowdown in China’s GDP also contributed negatively.
EURUSD
As President Trump raised import tariffs from the European Union to 30%, EURUSD fell by 265 points (26.5 pips) to 1.16630 at the start of last week. EURUSD experienced a temporary rebound as this policy is set to take effect on August 1, leaving room for trade negotiations until the month’s end.
This sentiment continues to cause volatility in EURUSD trading today, along with the impending release of European data. As mentioned earlier, this afternoon will see the release of Eurozone industrial production and German economic sentiment data. Should these releases come in higher than forecasted, there’s potential for positive momentum in EURUSD.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD dropped 685 points (68.5 pips) to 1.34211 at the start of last week, marking the lowest level in three weeks.
GBPUSD faced pressure due to the slowdown in the UK economy during Q2 2025, where data last week indicated contractions in GDP for April and May. This has led to expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates soon, creating a negative outlook for GBPUSD that may persist through the European trading session.
USDJPY
USDJPY increased by 248 points (24.8 pips) to 147.657 during the early part of last week amid volatile movements. This currency pair reached a three-week high following President Trump’s hike in import tariffs from Japan.
As Japan relies heavily on exports, the tariff increase undoubtedly poses challenges for its economy. This situation adds pressure on the yen, creating a favorable sentiment for USDJPY. These factors are expected to influence USDJPY movements throughout European trading sessions.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index rebounded by 96 points to 23,036 during Monday’s trading after an initial decline in response to Trump’s import tariff hike. However, the response from other nations, which focused on negotiation, sparked hope for a potential trade agreement, thus generating a positive sentiment for the stock index.
The robust GDP figures from China (over 5%) provided additional upbeat sentiment for the stock market. As the second-largest economy globally, China’s solid GDP amid heightened global uncertainty offers optimism for the global economy this year. The Nasdaq surged to achieve an all-time high of 23,172 this morning, and positive sentiments are likely to continue influencing trading during European sessions.
