The market movements appeared more subdued during the European trading session on Friday (February 7, 2025) compared to recent days. The impact of the trade war between the United States and China continues to affect market movements, but today the focus is on data from the US.
Here are the details from Trading Central:
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- Non-farm payrolls/NFP US (January) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 170K vs the previous 256K
- US unemployment rate (January) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 4.1% vs the previous 4.1%
- Average hourly earnings (month-on-month/January) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 0.3% vs the previous 0.3%
- Consumer sentiment (Preliminary/February) at 22:00 WIB; previously 72 vs 71.1
GOLD
Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose at the start of the European trading session, reaching US$ 2,870.66 per troy ounce. Compared to Thursday’s close, Gold increased by US$ 14.91 or 149.1 pips, and it is nearing the all-time high of US$ 2,882 per troy ounce achieved last Wednesday.
The rise in Gold prices continues to be supported by an increased demand for safe haven assets due to the many uncertainties looming in the future, particularly concerning the trade war.
Gold could receive additional positive sentiment if the US data released tonight is worse than the forecast. There remains a possibility that Gold might break its all-time high once again.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) climbed to US$ 71.31 per barrel at the start of the European trading session. Oil prices have fallen since mid-January, reaching their lowest level in the past six weeks. Hence, there is potential for a rise today due to short covering actions.
However, there is still potential for Oil to come under pressure again in tonight’s trading, as negative sentiment persists due to rising stocks in the United States, as well as the risk of demand declining due to the ongoing trade war.
EURUSD
EURUSD has been moving in a volatile range of 1.03727 – 1.0400 as the European session begins. This volatility comes despite data from Germany indicating a significant drop in industrial production in December, which should have pressured EURUSD.
This volatile movement indicates that market participants are weighing the potential for a more significant trade war between the US and China. Additionally, traders are waiting for the NFP data release tonight. If the actual data is lower than the forecast, it could put pressure on the US dollar, creating a positive sentiment for EURUSD.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD increased at the beginning of the European trading session after falling sharply on Thursday. GBPUSD reached a daily high of 1.24682, an increase of 340 points (34 pips).
Given this movement, it seems there is potential for GBPUSD to gain positive sentiment if the data released from the United States tonight is worse than the forecast.
USDJPY
USDJPY rose to 152.071 at the start of the European session, after previously dipping to 150.954. This level is the lowest since December 10. The currency pair experienced a sharp decline over the last three days, so today’s increase might be a result of short covering, as traders who had short positions close them to realize profits before the NFP data release.
Nonetheless, if the NFP and other data is released worse than expected, USDJPY could come under pressure again.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq saw a slight increase to 21,898 at the beginning of the European session. Since Thursday, Nasdaq’s trading range has been lower compared to previous days, yet it remains relatively volatile.
Sentiment for Nasdaq has not stabilized, as market participants are awaiting the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Nevertheless, if the data from the United States tonight is worse than the forecast, Nasdaq may experience a positive sentiment boost. This is because the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates more than twice this year would increase significantly.
