The market showed signs of stability at the beginning of the European trading session on Wednesday (July 30, 2025), as traders await the release of economic growth data (gross domestic product/GDP) from the United States, along with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement.
Both of these events could trigger significant movements in tonight’s trade. Here are the details from Trading Central:
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- Advance US GDP (quarterly annualized/Q2) at 19:30 WIB; forecast 2.5% vs previous -0.5%
- ADP Employment Data (July) at 19:30 WIB; forecast 20K vs previous -33K
- US Oil Stock (July 25); forecast -2.5 million barrels vs previous -3.2 million barrels.
- Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement (July) Thursday at 01:00 WIB; forecast 4.5% vs previous 4.5%
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) were volatile, hovering between US$3,321 and US$3,333 at the start of the European trading session. This fluctuation suggests that market participants are awaiting the release of US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements.
Should the GDP and ADP data exceed forecast expectations, it would indicate a strong US economy. This could lead the Federal Reserve to proceed cautiously with any interest rate cuts, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) fell during the early European trading session, reaching a daily low of US$68.44 per barrel. Compared to Tuesday’s close, oil decreased by US$0.82.
The decline in oil prices is attributed to profit-taking following a sharp increase the previous day. However, if tonight’s GDP data from the US shows higher than expected results, oil could receive a positive sentiment boost. A strong US economy may suggest that oil demand remains high. Moreover, oil could gain additional positive sentiment if stock data in the US reflects a greater drop than the forecast of -2.5 million barrels.
EURUSD
EURUSD declined at the start of the European session, hitting a daily low of 1.15322 after briefly rising to 1.15729 earlier. The pair failed to strengthen despite the German and Eurozone GDP data being released higher than expectations.
This movement reflects ongoing negative sentiment stemming from the US-EU trade agreement, which might reduce the trade surplus of the EU with the US.
EURUSD could face further downward pressure tonight if US economic data exceeds forecast expectations and the Federal Reserve indicates a cautious approach to interest rate cuts.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD rose to 1.33856 at the start of the European trading session but then pared its gains. The increase in this currency pair may be due to technical factors after reaching a two-month low recently.
Expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates soon continue to weigh on GBPUSD. Thus, if tonight’s US GDP data exceeds forecast expectations, GBPUSD is likely to face more downward pressure.
USDJPY
USDJPY briefly dropped to 147.799 during the early European session before rebounding. The forecast indicating a strong GDP growth in the US for Q2 2025 has helped USDJPY recover some of its losses.
Market participants believe that if the US economy proves strong, the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in reducing interest rates. Therefore, if the actual GDP surpasses the forecast, USDJPY could receive a positive market sentiment.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index rose at the beginning of the European session, reaching a daily high of 23,511. Compared to Tuesday’s close, the Nasdaq increased by 60 index points.
The upcoming release of GDP data and ADP employment figures will be closely watched. Should these results come in better than the forecast, it would suggest a robust economy and labor market in the US, potentially providing a positive sentiment for the Nasdaq.
