The US dollar strengthened again during trading on Thursday, responding to retail sales data that exceeded expectations while jobless claims dropped.
Retail sales for June showed a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, surpassing the forecast of 3.6% and the previous month’s growth of 3.3%. Meanwhile, jobless claims reported 221,000 individuals for the week ending July 12, which was lower than the expected 230,000 and a decrease from the prior week’s 228,000.
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These releases indicate that the US economy remains robust, contributing to a surge in the US dollar’s strength. This sentiment is likely to impact market movements during the European trading session on Friday (July 18, 2025).
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) fell by $8.56 or 85.6 pips in Thursday’s trading to $3,338.67 per troy ounce, even dipping to $3,309.74 per troy ounce at one point.
The better-than-expected US economic data and earlier data indicating a resurgence in inflation could lead the Fed to be more cautious about lowering interest rates.
According to FedWatch data, market participants now perceive a 56% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September, a significant drop from last week’s 65%.
Prolonged high interest rates present a negative sentiment for gold, which is a non-yielding asset. This negative sentiment is likely to linger on gold during the European trading session.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) rose nearly $1 to $67.59 per barrel during trading on Thursday. Data showing a significant decline in oil stocks in the US provided positive sentiment.
Additionally, the International Energy Agency predicts that global oil supply remains tight despite OPEC+ increasing production levels, further boosting oil prices, which will likely influence trading during the European session.
EURUSD
EURUSD fell by 438 points (43.8 pips) to 1.15951 in Thursday’s trading. The resurgent US dollar exerted downward pressure on EURUSD, which even reached 1.15571, the lowest level in the past month.
EURUSD is also weighed down by ongoing trade negotiations between the US and the European Union, which have yet to show signs of reaching an agreement. This negative sentiment is expected to affect market movements in the European trading session.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD ended flat at 1.34123 in Thursday’s trading. Short covering may have contributed to a rebound in GBPUSD, as the currency pair hit its lowest level in nearly two months the day prior.
Additionally, data from the UK revealed that the unemployment rate in May rose to 4.7%, up from 4.6% the previous month. This report indicates a weakening labor market in the UK, particularly as prior data showed a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) during April and May.
This series of data continues to cast a negative sentiment on GBPUSD during the European trading session.
USDJPY
USDJPY surged by 721 points (72.1 pips) to 148.526 in Thursday’s trading, nearly reversing the sharp decline seen the day before. The strengthening US dollar came after the release of better-than-expected economic data.
On the other hand, data from Japan today indicates that inflation growth slowed in June. This development reduces the pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates. Consequently, the yen is under negative sentiment, creating significant upward momentum for USDJPY.
Nasdaq
The strong performance of the US economy, highlighted by retail sales growth and lower jobless claims, allowed the Nasdaq to surge more than 200 index points, breaking its all-time high on Thursday.
Today, the Nasdaq again set a record at 23,293. In addition to the strength of the US economy, the earnings reporting season for companies is projected to be quite solid, providing additional positive sentiment for the Nasdaq. This sentiment is expected to continue influencing Nasdaq movements in the European trading session.
