Signs of an economic slowdown in the United States are becoming increasingly apparent. The labor market is showing weaknesses, corroborated by the deceleration of growth in the US service sector. Recently, ISM reported a services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of 50.1 for July, down from the previous month’s 50.8 and below the forecast of 51.
The PMI uses a score of 50 as a dividing line; below this level indicates contraction, while above signifies expansion. Thus, the July data suggest that the service sector is slowing in its expansion, nearly approaching contraction, pointing towards a slowdown in the US economy.
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It’s important to note that the service sector serves as the backbone of the US economy, contributing roughly 70% of GDP and 80% of total employment. This release will continue to impact market movements during the European trading session on Wednesday (July 6, 2025). Additionally, several upcoming economic data releases may also influence market trends, as noted by Trading Central:
- German factory orders (month-on-month/July) at 1:00 PM WIB; forecast 0.7% vs previous -1.4%.
- Eurozone retail sales (month-on-month/July) at 4:00 PM WIB; forecast 0.3% vs previous -0.7%.
- Eurozone retail sales (year-on-year/July) at 4:00 PM WIB; forecast 2.5% vs previous 1.8%.
GOLD
Gold prices have seen a rise for four consecutive days, closing Tuesday’s trading at $3,380.36 per troy ounce. Compared to Monday’s close, Gold increased by $7.42 or 74.2 pips, while over the last four days, it surged by more than $105.
Gold’s uptrend comes amid growing signs of an economic slowdown in the US. This increases the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates next month. According to data from the FedWatch tool, market participants now assign a 92% probability that the Fed will reduce interest rates in September.
This sentiment supports Gold since a rate cut would decrease US Treasury yields. Both Treasuries and Gold are considered safe-haven assets; when Treasury yields fall, Gold tends to benefit.
These sentiments will likely continue to affect Gold’s performance in European trading.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) have dropped for four consecutive days, closing on Tuesday at $65.16 per barrel. Compared to Monday’s close, Oil fell by $1.05 and has decreased by over $5 in four days.
The plan by OPEC+ to increase production by 547,000 barrels in September continues to exert pressure on Oil prices and is expected to influence movements during the European trading session.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair recorded a slight increase to 1.15726 during Tuesday’s trading after experiencing profit-taking. The pressure on the US dollar following the PMI services data release allowed EURUSD to rebound.
In the European trading session, the release of German factory order data and Eurozone retail sales could impact the EURUSD movement. If these data are better than forecasted, there is potential for a positive sentiment toward EURUSD.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD exhibited volatility on Tuesday before closing higher at 1.32955. GBPUSD is benefiting from an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September.
Market participants are also awaiting the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate announcement on Thursday. Thus, GBPUSD is likely to remain volatile with an upward tendency.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair increased by 467 points (46.7 pips) to 147.483 due to short covering after plummeting more than 360 pips over two trading days.
USDJPY still grapples with negative sentiments stemming from signs of an economic slowdown in the US and the rising probability of a Fed rate cut in September.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq fell by 260 index points to 23,090 in Tuesday’s trading. Signs of an economic slowdown in the US triggered profit-taking in Nasdaq, which is still not far from its all-time high.
Conversely, signs of a US economic slowdown are increasing the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates. This could provide a positive sentiment for Nasdaq, suggesting that its movements will remain volatile. However, profit-taking might continue owing to its proximity to record-high levels.
