The financial markets experienced considerable volatility during the European trading session on Wednesday (November 26, 2025). There were no significant fundamental changes. Weak retail sales data and the producer price index (PPI) in the United States (US) for September still overshadowed market sentiment on a month-on-month (MoM) basis.
In addition, dovish signals from two Federal Reserve officials, John Williams and Christopher Waller, continue to heighten expectations for a rate cut in December. This expectation is now the primary driver of market trends.
Recommended
Recommended
Recommended
Recommended
As the US session approaches, market participants are keenly awaiting the release of important economic data. Here are the details from Trading Central:
-
US Durable Goods Orders (MoM/September) – 20:30 WIB
forecast 0.2% vs previous 2.9%
-
US Jobless Claims (Nov/22) – 20:30 WIB
forecast 224,000 vs previous 220,000
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) remained stable during the European session after gaining $38.99 to reach $4,169.23 per troy ounce earlier. The anticipation of a Fed rate cut in December and weak US economic data remain the main positive catalysts for Gold.
In the evening session, the primary focus of the market will be on the US jobless claims data. If the actual data exceeds the forecast, it indicates deteriorating labor market conditions, thereby increasing the chances of a rate cut.
This situation could provide an additional boost for Gold.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) faced pressure and briefly touched $57.66 per barrel during the European session. Negative sentiment stemmed from the nearing peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, particularly following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that negotiations are nearly complete. The potential lifting of sanctions against Russia raises concerns about global oil oversupply.
This sentiment is likely to continue putting pressure on Oil prices during the US trading session.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair saw an initial rise, reaching 1.15960 before experiencing a correction at the start of the European session. The strengthening of the US dollar during the day was a factor in this correction. However, the US dollar remains under pressure due to increased expectations for a Fed rate cut in December.
If the jobless claims data tonight is released higher than forecasted, the US dollar could weaken as it signals a declining labor market, allowing the EURUSD pair to potentially rebound.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD rose to 1.31977 before a correction occurred at the beginning of the European session, coinciding with the US dollar’s strength in the middle of the day. Nevertheless, the US dollar is still shadowed by negative sentiment due to rising expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Additionally, at 19:00 WIB, the market awaits the announcement of the UK’s autumn budget. If Finance Minister Rachel Reeves decides to increase income taxes, it may dampen consumer spending, suppress inflation, and enhance the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) reducing interest rates.
With two crucial releases tonight, the autumn budget and US economic data, the GBPUSD movement could be highly volatile.
USDJPY
USDJPY attempted to strengthen and briefly reached 156.494 during the early part of the European trading session. However, the US dollar still carries the burden of expectations for a Fed rate cut.
On the other hand, the yen continues to receive positive sentiment from the Japanese government’s intervention plans in the foreign exchange market. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also reportedly preparing to raise interest rates as early as next month.
If the jobless claims data from the US tonight comes in higher than forecasted, additional pressure on the US dollar may see USDJPY potentially reverse and decline further.
NASDAQ|
The Nasdaq index rose by 172 points to 25,235 during the European session, continuing its positive trend from the previous day. The main driving factor still stems from increased expectations for a Fed rate cut following dovish signals from two Fed officials.
If jobless claims show higher numbers tonight, the Nasdaq could continue to rise as the chances of a rate cut increase.
