Market volatility has escalated at the beginning of the European trading session on Thursday (June 12, 2025). The EURUSD pair surged to its highest point since November 2021. Greater fluctuations are likely to occur in the evening session due to upcoming data releases from the United States. Here are the details from Trading Central:
- US Producer Price Inflation (PPI) for May at 19:30 WIB; forecast 2.3%, compared to the previous 2.4%.
- Core US Producer Price Inflation (core PPI) for May at 19:30 WIB; forecast 3.1%, unchanged from the previous 3.1%.
- US Unemployment Claims for June 7 at 19:30 WIB; forecast 250K, up from the previous 247K.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) exhibited wild fluctuations at the start of the European session. It initially peaked at $3,377.79 per troy ounce before quickly retreating to $3,338.53 per troy ounce, only to rebound thereafter.
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The volatility in gold prices is attributed to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, alongside President Donald Trump’s announcement of impending unilateral import tariffs. This has rekindled uncertainties in the financial markets, enhancing gold’s allure as a safe haven asset.
Tonight’s data releases from the US could trigger further movements in gold prices. As per the projections from Trading Central, a worse-than-expected release could bring additional positive sentiment for gold.
OIL
Profit-taking activities have pushed oil prices (CLS10) down to $67.02 per barrel during early European trading, following a morning spike that nearly reached $69 per barrel, a high not seen in over two months.
Yesterday, oil prices surged by $3.55 due to rising concerns over potential conflict in the Middle East after nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran stalled. The US government is currently planning to evacuate some staff from its embassy in Iraq due to security issues.
This conflict poses risks to supply in the region, which could motivate further increases in oil prices. Market sentiment will continue to influence oil price movements during the evening session.
EURUSD
As previously noted, EURUSD surged to $1.15886 at the start of the European session. Compared to Wednesday’s closing, the EURUSD rose by 1.025 points (102.5 pips), achieving its highest level in three and a half years.
This movement reflects the pressure on the US dollar following inflation data that grew lower than expected. Such trends strengthen the expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates again in September. Meanwhile, some officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) have hinted at an imminent end to the rate-cutting period.
If tonight’s economic data from the US comes in below forecasts, it could provide additional positive sentiment for EURUSD, as market players may become more confident in the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD initially plummeted to 1.35233 at the onset of the European trading session before rebounding and nearly reaching the daily high of 1.35930. The sharp decline followed data that indicated the UK’s economic growth (Gross Domestic Product/GDP) contracted on a month-on-month basis in April.
However, GBPUSD’s subsequent rebound signals weak performance for the US dollar. Should the economic data from the US tonight be worse than forecasted, there is potential for GBPUSD to gain additional positive sentiment.
USDJPY
The significant pressures on the US dollar are evident, with USDJPY plummeting more than 100 pips to 143.496 at the start of the European session. Pressure on USDJPY may intensify if tonight’s PPI and unemployment claims data from the US are worse than expected.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index fell during early European trading, hitting a daily low of 21,717. Compared to Wednesday’s closing, the Nasdaq declined by 163 index points.
Increasing uncertainties, primarily stemming from US-Iran tensions and Trump’s unilateral tariff plans, have initiated profit-taking activities in the Nasdaq index.
Given the Nasdaq’s relatively high position, there is potential for continued profit-taking into the evening session.
