The United States dollar demonstrated notable strength last Friday in response to the statements from three Federal Reserve officials leaning towards a hawkish stance. This upward momentum for the dollar persisted into the early trading hours of Monday (November 17, 2025), particularly affecting the euro and the British pound.
This morning, the EUR/USD pair dipped to around 1.16049, while the GBP/USD dropped to 1.31493. The strengthened dollar could exert pressure on gold, which saw a substantial decline of over $85 or 850 pips, settling at $4,084.99 per troy ounce last Friday, even touching a daily low near $4,032 per troy ounce.
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Gold prices initially rose to $4,106.26 per troy ounce this morning before experiencing another downturn. These fluctuations suggest the possibility of ongoing sales in gold if the US dollar continues to appreciate. The primary challenge for gold comes from diminishing expectations regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.
Last week, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto Musalem, mentioned that Fed officials need to exercise caution in adjusting interest rates since inflation remains above the target level. This implies that reducing interest rates could increase inflation risks.
Additionally, Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Fed, stated that monetary policy should maintain a somewhat ‘restrictive’ approach. Meanwhile, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, expressed his opposition to an interest rate cut in September and has yet to decide for December.
Following these remarks, the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve for December has now dropped to approximately 45%, down from around 70% at the start of the previous week. This declining probability has also contributed to selling pressure in the stock index, including Nasdaq.
