The release of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from Europe has led to a resurgence in the strength of the US dollar this afternoon. Poor PMI readings from Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK have put pressure on the euro and pound sterling, benefiting the US dollar.
Tonight, in trading on Thursday (July 24, 2025), the monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB) and economic data from the United States will influence further movements. Furthermore, market participants are awaiting clarity regarding the trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.
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Here are the latest data from Trading Central:
- ECB interest rate announcement (July) at 5:15 PM WIB; forecast 2.15% vs previous 2.15%
- US unemployment benefit claims (July 19) at 7:30 PM WIB; forecast 225K vs previous 221K
- New Home Sales in the US (month-on-month/June) at 9:00 PM WIB; forecast 10% vs previous -13.7%
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) have dropped nearly $25 or 250 pips to $3,361.94 per troy ounce as European trading commenced. The price is under pressure due to reports that the United States and the European Union are nearing a trade agreement, diminishing its appeal as a safe haven asset.
The strengthening of the US dollar also casts a negative sentiment on this precious metal. Additional pressure on gold is likely if tonight’s economic data from the US is better than the forecast.
OIL
Optimism surrounding a potential US-EU trade agreement has caused oil prices (CLS10) to rise to $66.29 per barrel during European trading.
If an agreement is reached, the risks of a trade war will decrease, positively impacting the global economy. This may also boost demand for oil, contributing to its positive sentiment.
EURUSD
The manufacturing PMIs from Germany and the Eurozone fell below expectations and remain in contraction, causing EURUSD to decline to 1.17456 at the start of European trading, after reaching 1.17801 earlier.
Tonight’s ECB monetary policy announcement could trigger significant movements in EURUSD. According to Trading Central, the ECB is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.15%, but market participants will be looking for signs of any further cuts in the near future.
Should the ECB indicate no cuts are forthcoming, there is potential for a EURUSD rebound.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD has dropped to 1.35348 at the start of European trading after previously rising to 1.35886. The pair is under pressure following a decline in the PMI for the service sector, while the manufacturing sector continues to contract.
This underscores the slowdown in the UK economy, increasing pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to lower interest rates, leaving GBPUSD under negative sentiment.
USDJPY
USDJPY has rebounded to 146.657 at the start of European trading, after falling to 145.854 previously. The increase is likely due to short covering after a substantial decline earlier this week.
Further positive sentiment for USDJPY could emerge if US economic data released tonight exceeds forecast expectations.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq is trading sideways within the range of 23,347 – 23,421 as European trading begins. The index is very close to its all-time high of 23,423 reached earlier this week.
Reports of the US approaching a trade agreement with the EU provide positive sentiment for the Nasdaq. Such positive sentiment may increase if US economic data outperforms tonight’s forecast.
