The United States dollar (USD) faced renewed pressure at the start of the European trading session on Friday (March 7, 2025), as markets awaited the release of labor data, which includes the non-farm payrolls (NFP). There are concerns that the labor data could underperform expectations, given that previous reports indicated over 170,000 layoffs occurred in February, marking the largest job cuts since July 2020.
Here are the key data points from Trading Central:
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- Non-farm payrolls for the US (February) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 150K vs previous 143K
- US unemployment rate (February); forecast 4% vs previous 4%
- Average hourly earnings in the US (year-on-year/February); forecast 4.1% vs previous 4.1%
GOLD
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) rebounded to $2,922.90 per troy ounce at the beginning of the European session, having previously dipped to $2,896.81 per troy ounce.
Gold is showing volatility as it approaches the release of US labor data, as the figures could illuminate the state of the economy and potential monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve. If the data falls short of forecast, it could create a positive sentiment for Gold in evening trading.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) experienced a rebound at the start of the European trading session, hitting a daily high of $67.34 per barrel. The rise in Oil prices may be attributed to short covering after trading near ten-month lows.
However, sentiments about Oil remain negative as market participants are concerned about an economic slowdown in the US that could dampen demand. Oil is also under pressure due to OPEC+ plans to increase production starting next month.
These sentiments may continue to weigh on Oil during tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD surged to 1.08714 at the start of the European trading session, gaining 890 points (89 pips) and reaching the highest level since November 6.
The Euro is receiving positive encouragement from Germany’s plans for fiscal reform. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates but indicated that this downward trend may soon be coming to an end.
The sentiment for EURUSD could become more favorable if the US NFP data is released lower than forecast.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD also increased at the start of the European trading session, reaching 1.29444. This currency pair rose by 665 points (66.5 pips) and hit the highest level since November 8.
In addition to benefiting from the rise of EURUSD, the likelihood that the UK will not engage in a trade war with the United States has also positively influenced GBPUSD. Consequently, if US economic data tonight is worse than forecast, GBPUSD could gain additional positive sentiment.
USDJPY
USDJPY fell to 147.203 at the start of the European trading session, which is a decline of 743 points (74.3 pips) compared to Thursday’s trading close. This positions USDJPY at its lowest level in five months, indicating weakness in the US dollar.
The pressure on USDJPY may increase further if the US labor market data is worse than forecast.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq continues to experience pressure and is trading near its lowest point in five months. Despite Trump postponing tariffs on certain imports, the overall sentiment remains negative.
Along with uncertainties surrounding import tariffs, signs of an economic slowdown in the US also add significant pressure. Poor labor data from the US tonight could further intensify the pressures on the Nasdaq.
