The financial markets experienced significant movements last week. The United States Dollar encountered intense pressure, while US stock indices saw a notable decline, and gold prices remained relatively stable.
Similar trends are likely to be observed again in trading on Monday (March 10, 2025).
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GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) surged sharply during the first two days of the last week but then moved into a stable phase. This movement suggests a tug-of-war in market sentiment, particularly concerning the dynamics of the import tariff policies enacted by the United States.
Additionally, there are signs of an economic slowdown in the United States. Data released last Friday indicated that the non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by 151,000 in February, slightly above the forecast of 150,000 from Trading Central. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.1% from the previous 4%.
This release could potentially create a positive sentiment for gold, especially if the dollar comes under renewed pressure during the European trading session.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) managed to rise by $0.79 to $67.04 per barrel in trading last Friday, recovering from a low of $65.21 per barrel reached on Tuesday, which was the lowest since May 2024.
The increase occurred after President Trump threatened to impose sanctions on the Russian oil industry if no ceasefire agreement was reached with Ukraine.
Nonetheless, the sentiment surrounding the economic slowdown in the US continues to loom over oil prices, especially with OPEC+ planning to increase production next month. This indicates that pressure on oil prices remains considerable.
EURUSD
EURUSD saw significant gains last week in response to Germany’s fiscal reform plans. Over the past week, EURUSD surged by 4,577 points (457.7 pips) to 1.08323, marking its highest level in four months.
In today’s trading, EURUSD climbed to 1.08713 before correcting, likely due to profit taking. During the European session, the release of German industrial production data at 14:00 WIB could influence EURUSD’s movement.
Forecasts from Trading Central indicate that industrial production on January 2 is expected to grow by 1.5% month-on-month (MoM) compared to the previous month’s -2.4% MoM. Higher-than-forecast data could provide additional positive sentiment for EURUSD.
GBPUSD
The sharp increase in EURUSD also lifted this currency pair by 3,422 points (342.2 pips) to 1.29199. Earlier today, GBPUSD rose again to 1.29455 before correcting.
The similar movements of EURUSD suggest that Germany’s fiscal reform plans could also positively impact the UK. Therefore, GBPUSD’s movements during the European trading session might mirror those of EURUSD.
USDJPY
USDJPY plunged by 2,566 points (256.6 pips) to 148.037, marking its lowest level in five months. Signs of an economic slowdown in the US are putting pressure on USDJPY.
The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is predicted to contract in the first quarter, as reflected in the GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed. As of March 6, GDPNow is projecting a -2.4% GDP for the US in Q1 2025. GDPNow offers real-time projections of US economic growth based on the latest economic data releases, with continual updates expected. The next data release is scheduled for March 17.
This negative sentiment is likely to continue affecting USDJPY’s movements during the European trading session.
Nasdaq
The risk of US GDP contraction caused the Nasdaq to drop below 20,000 last Friday. For the first time in five months, Nasdaq fell below this psychological threshold before gradually recovering and closing at 20,198.
In morning trading today, Nasdaq again dipped to 19,932 before reducing its losses. This movement indicates that negative sentiment remains prevalent in the Nasdaq, particularly due to risks associated with the US economic slowdown and trade tensions.
