The financial markets have shown a relatively stable trend during the European trading session on Thursday (September 11, 2025), indicating that market participants are awaiting the release of the United States inflation data (consumer price index/CPI) later tonight.
This data may provide insights into how aggressively the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the remainder of the year. Consequently, the CPI release could trigger significant market movements this evening. Additionally, the announcement regarding the interest rate from the European Central Bank (ECB) might also lead to high volatility.
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Here’s the data from Trading Central:
- ECB interest rate announcement at 19:15 WIB; forecast 2.15% vs previous 2.15%
- US CPI (year-on-year/Aug) at 19:30 WIB: forecast 2.8% vs previous 2.7%
- Core US CPI (year-on-year/Aug) at 19:30 WIB: forecast 3.1% vs previous 3.1%
GOLD
Gold (XAUUSD) prices dropped at the beginning of the European trading session, hitting a daily low of $3,614.17 per troy ounce. Compared to Wednesday’s closing, gold has decreased by $26.21 or 262.1 pips.
This correction in gold prices reflects market participants’ anticipation of tonight’s CPI release. The previous day, the producer price index (PPI) data indicated a slowdown in growth for August. Since PPI is a leading indicator for CPI, the market perceives a possibility that the CPI data issued tonight may also come in lower than expected.
Nevertheless, traders are still bracing for a potential surprise with a higher CPI, causing gold prices to adjust before the actual figures are revealed. If the CPI aligns with the forecast or comes in even lower, gold could receive a positive sentiment boost.
OIL
In line with previous Macro Overview projections, oil prices (CLS10) have decreased to $63.13 per barrel at the start of the European session. Compared to Wednesday’s close, oil fell by $0.6, following three consecutive days of increases.
Recent data showing an increase in oil stocks in the United States is exerting downward pressure. This rise may indicate weak oil demand, leading to negative sentiment.
EURUSD
Profit-taking actions ahead of the US CPI data release have continued, resulting in EURUSD dipping to around 1.16774 during the European session. Market players are also waiting for the ECB’s interest rate announcement, which is anticipated to keep its rates steady. There’s a chance that the ECB might also indicate a more cautious approach in lowering interest rates in the future.
Thus, EURUSD could experience positive sentiment, particularly if the US CPI is reported lower than the forecast.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD reversed course to 1.34935 at the beginning of the European trading session after briefly rising to 1.35397. The release of the US PPI data continues to weigh on the US dollar. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates aggressively has become more pronounced following the PPI release.
As a result, GBPUSD might gain additional positive sentiment if the US CPI data is reported lower than the forecast.
USDJPY
USDJPY surged sharply at the start of the European trading session, reaching a daily high of 147.988. Compared to Wednesday’s close, USDJPY is up 602 points (60.2 pips).
However, USDJPY is vulnerable to a reversal, especially if the US CPI data shows a slowdown in growth. Market participants are likely to grow more optimistic that the Federal Reserve will act decisively in cutting interest rates, leading to potential negative sentiment for the US dollar.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index rose at the beginning of the European trading session, touching a daily high of 23,941. Expectations surrounding an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are providing positive sentiment to Nasdaq. Should the CPI data released tonight be lower than the forecast, there is potential for the Nasdaq to rise even higher.
