The release of economic data from Europe has added volatility to the markets during trading on Tuesday (12/8/2025). Greater movements are anticipated in tonight’s trading as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States is set to be released.
Inflation is a key indicator used by the Federal Reserve in determining interest rates, making this data significantly impactful. According to information from FedWatch tools, the market estimates an 84% probability for a rate cut by the Fed in September.
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Here’s the data from Trading Central:
- US CPI (year-on-year/June) at 19:30 WIB; forecasted at 2.7% versus prior data of 2.7%
- Core US CPI (year-on-year/June) at 19:30 WIB; forecasted at 3% versus a previous value of 2.9%
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) saw a pullback after reaching a daily high of $3,358.09 per troy ounce. This movement indicates that market participants are anxiously awaiting the CPI data from the United States.
Currently, gold is facing negative sentiment as US President Trump emphasized that imports of gold bullion will not incur taxes. He also extended trade negotiations with China for another 90 days. Consequently, the risks of a trade war are diminishing, which decreases gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
The pressure on gold could intensify if the inflation figures or core CPI (which excludes food and energy sectors) come in higher than the forecast.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) have been trading sideways between $63.74 and $64.32 per barrel at the beginning of European trading.
The extension of US-China trade negotiations has sparked hopes for reaching a trade deal, providing a positive sentiment towards oil. Conversely, President Trump’s planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin could cast a negative light on the sector, as there’s a possibility that Russia’s energy industry won’t face sanctions, ensuring global oil supplies remain stable.
Both factors lead to volatility in oil prices, although the focus on the Trump-Putin meeting suggests a potential downward pressure.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair declined to 1.16003 at the start of European trading after previously rising to 1.16291. The downturn followed disappointing economic sentiment data from Germany, which was reported at 34.7, much lower than the forecast of 45 and down from 52.7 the previous month.
Similar drastic declines were observed in the Eurozone economic sentiment. The pressure on EURUSD may increase if US inflation data is released higher than expected.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD moved higher in early European trading, hitting a daily peak of 1.34723. Compared to Monday’s close, GBPUSD rose by 459 points (45.9 pips). The increase follows data suggesting a robust UK labor market, which strengthens market confidence that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain interest rates in the near term.
However, there is potential for a correction in GBPUSD if US inflation data exceeds the forecast.
USDJPY
USDJPY saw an increase to 148.484 at the start of the European session. The reduced risks from the US-China trade conflict have contributed positively to USDJPY. This sentiment could strengthen further if tonight’s US inflation data comes in above expectations.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index has been trading within a narrow range of 23,595 to 23,675 as European trading commences. This activity indicates that market players are awaiting the release of US inflation data.
Should the data exceed expectations, it could lower the probabilities of a Fed rate cut in September, leading to potential profit-taking actions on the Nasdaq.
