Price volatility during the European session today, Tuesday (26/8/25), appears to be more stable than at the outset of the morning trading. However, the calm was disrupted by shocking news from the United States: Donald Trump has threatened to remove Fed Chair, Lisa Cook, while also planning new tariffs and export restrictions in response to the implementation of Digital Services Tax (DST) by several countries.
Market attention is now focused on the release of U.S. economic data tonight, specifically durable goods orders and consumer sentiment. These figures are crucial for assessing the latest economic conditions in the U.S. and the direction of Fed monetary policy.
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Here are the highlights from Trading Central:
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders data will be released at 19:30 WIB; forecast −2.5% compared to a prior -9.3%.
- U.S. Consumer Sentiment data at 21:00 WIB; forecast 96 against the previous 97.2.
GOLD
Gold’s price has remained stable during the European session, ranging between $3,367 – $3,379, after previously spiking to a daily high of $3,386. This surge was propelled by Trump’s threats concerning new tariffs and his plans to limit the export of U.S. chips to countries that maintain DST.
Moving forward, the primary focus for market participants will be the U.S. data release later tonight. If the actual results are worse than expected, the opportunity for a continued rally in Gold remains high due to escalating demand for safe haven assets.
OIL
Oil prices turned lower during the European session after an earlier upswing. This retreat is largely attributed to profit-taking by market players.
Nonetheless, the medium-term sentiment continues to be supported by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the potential for additional U.S. sanctions against Russia if peace negotiations do not show progress. As long as these two factors dominate, oil prices could remain on a bullish trend.
EURUSD
The EURUSD currency pair displayed sideways movement in the range of 1.16022 – 1.16446 throughout the European session. Market participants are waiting for clarity from the U.S. economic data due tonight.
If the released data is weaker than expected, the bullish prospects for EURUSD remain open, particularly as markets assess a lower (dovish) outlook for Fed interest rates.
GBPUSD
Similarly, the GBPUSD currency pair traded with relative calm during the European session, as traders sought further information regarding the U.S. economy from the two pending data releases.
However, the potential for GBPUSD to strengthen remains significant. The dovish stance of the Fed could weaken the U.S. dollar, and if tonight’s actual data falls short of expectations, the chance of GBPUSD rising becomes even stronger.
USDJPY
USDJPY exhibited considerable volatility during the European session, fluctuating within the range of 146.986 – 147.906. Market sentiment was influenced by trade war issues being raised again by Trump, alongside the differing monetary policies from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed.
With the awaited U.S. data release tonight, USDJPY could experience increased volatility driven by this combination of fundamental factors.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq index traded steadily around 23,490 during the European session. However, significant catalysts continue to overshadow it, including Trump’s new tariff threats, the Fed’s dovish stance, and tonight’s U.S. economic data release.
Given the range of market triggers, Nasdaq’s volatility potential tonight remains quite high.
