The US dollar has struggled to maintain its strength at the start of the European trading session on Wednesday (6/4/2025). On Tuesday, the dollar rallied following news that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping of China are set to have discussions this week. Additionally, the European Union revealed it has made a significant tariff reduction offer to the U.S.
The recent decline of the US dollar suggests that market participants are awaiting clarity on trade negotiations. This sentiment is expected to influence market movements tonight, alongside the release of economic data from the U.S. Below are the details from Trading Central:
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- ADP Employment Data (May) at 19:15 WIB; forecast 70K compared to the previous 64K
- ISM Services Sector Activity (May) at 21:00 WIB; forecast 52 compared to the previous 51.6
GOLD
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) has shown volatility within the range of $3,346 – $3,372 per troy ounce as the European session progresses. This movement reflects that traders are waiting for clarity regarding trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and the European Union scheduled in Paris today.
If developments are positive, gold prices may experience downward pressure. The sentiment around gold could turn even more negative if U.S. economic data comes in better than the forecast, indicating an improvement in the U.S. economy in May.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) increased at the beginning of the European session, reaching a daily high of $63.71 per barrel after previously dipping to $63.05. The easing of trade tensions has provided a positive sentiment for oil.
This optimistic sentiment could strengthen further if positive news arises from U.S.-EU trade negotiations.
EURUSD
EURUSD rose at the start of the European trading session, hitting a daily peak of 1.14040. Compared to the closing on Tuesday, EURUSD increased by 358 points (35.8 pips).
Despite the rise, EURUSD may be at risk of a decline following economic data from the eurozone yesterday which indicated slowing inflation growth. This creates a greater possibility for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates again. Pressure on EURUSD will intensify if U.S. economic data is released better than the forecast.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD has also risen in the early European session, reaching a daily high of 1.35452. The weakening dollar has allowed GBPUSD to climb. However, if U.S. economic data tonight exceeds the forecast, there is a risk that GBPUSD could face downward pressure again.
USDJPY
USDJPY has been volatile, ranging between 143.609 and 144.384 at the start of the European trading session. The yen remains impacted by negative sentiment tied to discussions that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might halt its bond purchasing program, indicating that liquidity in the financial market is still high, putting additional pressure on the yen.
USDJPY may receive a boost if U.S. economic data released tonight outperforms the forecast.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq saw a slight increase to 21,758 at the beginning of the European session. This modest movement indicates that market participants are awaiting developments in U.S.-EU trade negotiations.
Nasdaq could gain further positive momentum if there are favorable outcomes from these trade talks, particularly if U.S. economic data is better than the forecast.
