The US dollar (USD) experienced a downturn during European trading on Friday (August 15, 2025). This movement indicates that even though hopes for a 50 basis point cut from the Fed are fading, market participants remain confident that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point cut next month.
According to FedWatch, the likelihood of such a cut stands at 92%. This sentiment is likely to influence market movements alongside data from the United States. Here’s the data from Trading Central:
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- New York Manufacturing Index (August); forecast 1 vs previous 5.5
- US Retail Sales (month-on-month/July); forecast 0.4% vs previous 0.6%
- US Retail Sales (year-on-year/July); forecast 3.5% vs previous 3.9%
The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska today also holds potential for significant market movements.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) saw a retreat after peaking at $3,348.70 per troy ounce. The anticipation of a Fed interest rate cut in September continues to cast a positive sentiment over Gold.
However, the reduction in Gold’s momentum, coinciding with the pressure on the US dollar, depicts that traders are awaiting the outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting. If Trump succeeds in mitigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, market risk appetite could improve, potentially putting downward pressure on Gold.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) slipped $0.7 to $63.21 per barrel by the start of European trading. The Trump-Putin meeting is expected to trigger major activity in the Oil market. Should Putin decide to end the Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could be lifted, leading to an influx of Oil supply from the country back into the markets.
This scenario is likely to create a negative sentiment towards Oil.
EURUSD
EURUSD rose at the start of European trading, hitting the daily high of 1.16915. Compared to Thursday’s close, EURUSD increased by 457 points (45.7 pips).
The pressure faced by the US dollar allows EURUSD to gain traction. If US economic data is released worse than expected, the pressure on the dollar could intensify. Conversely, if the Trump-Putin meeting results in a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, EURUSD should experience positive sentiment.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD climbed 372 points (37.2 pips) to 1.35611 in early European trading. Positive sentiment stems from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will not be lowering interest rates anytime soon.
On the flip side, the dollar may face increased pressure if data from the United States comes in worse than forecast. This provides room for GBPUSD to gain further ground.
USDJPY
USDJPY continued its decline in early European trading, reaching a daily low of 146.754. Compared to Thursday’s trading close, USDJPY dropped 917 points (91.7 pips).
Economic data from Japan showed a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, which is higher than the forecast of 0.2% and the previous quarter’s growth of 0.1%. This release prompted traders to perceive that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might raise interest rates imminently, thereby strengthening the yen and putting pressure on USDJPY.
The pressure on this currency pair is likely to continue tonight if US economic data reveals worse outcomes than forecasted.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq has remained relatively stable, ranging between 23,871 – 23,962 at the beginning of European trading. It is still near its all-time high of 24,067 reached last Wednesday.
The Trump-Putin meeting is a key focal point for the stock index. If it leads to a peaceful resolution in the Russia-Ukraine situation, the Nasdaq could see another surge.
