The recent move by U.S. President Donald Trump to double import tariffs on steel from 25% to 50% has caused pressure on the U.S. dollar during trading on Monday (June 2, 2025). This action has drawn criticism from the European Union and China, who plan to retaliate if these tariffs are implemented.
This sentiment is likely to continue impacting market movements this evening, alongside the release of the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data by ISM. Trading Central’s forecast indicates that the PMI for manufacturing in May is expected to be 49, an increase from the previous figure of 48.7.
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GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) surged nearly $70 this afternoon, reaching around $3,358 per troy ounce. The risk of escalating trade tensions has boosted the demand for Gold as a safe haven. The pressure on the U.S. dollar has also contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding Gold, driving its price upward.
If the U.S. manufacturing PMI data released tonight falls below 50 or is worse than the forecast, the sentiment around Gold could become even more favorable.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) rose $2.20 today, reaching $62.92 per barrel. Oil prices increased despite OPEC+ planning to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in July.
This decision from OPEC+ aligns with prior speculations, indicating no surprises in larger production increases, which has allowed Oil to rebound. However, should the U.S. manufacturing PMI data show results below 50, indicating contraction, it could trigger negative sentiment for Oil as a contracting manufacturing sector signals weak demand for Oil.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair surged at the beginning of the European trading session, reaching a daily high of 1.14371. Compared to Friday’s close, EURUSD increased by 905 points (90.5 pips).
The risk of a renewed trade war has raised concerns about an economic slowdown in the U.S., applying pressure on the dollar which could intensify if the U.S. manufacturing PMI is reported below 50. This suggests a potential for the EURUSD to gain further positive sentiment.
GBPUSD
Similar to the EURUSD, this currency pair has jumped over 100 pips this afternoon to 1.35572. The pressure faced by the dollar has boosted GBPUSD. This sentiment is likely to influence movements in GBPUSD during tonight’s trading.
USDJPY
The pressure on the U.S. dollar resulted in a significant drop in USDJPY, plummeting 127 pips to 142.776 by this afternoon. This sharp decline indicates that Trump’s proposal to double import tariffs is negatively impacting the dollar.
The yen, regarded as a safe haven, has benefitted from this situation, leading to a decrease in USDJPY. This sentiment will likely continue to affect USDJPY trading this evening.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index fell during the early European trading session, hitting a daily low of 21,162. Compared to Friday’s trading close, the Nasdaq dropped by 201 points.
The risk of re-escalation in the trade war poses negative sentiment for the Nasdaq, especially since the European Union and China have announced strong retaliatory measures. This negative sentiment is expected to continue influencing Nasdaq movements in tonight’s market.
