The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, announced its monetary policy early Thursday (May 8, 2025). This announcement is expected to influence market movements throughout the trading session.
During the early hours, the Fed decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25% – 4.5%. Furthermore, they made it clear that there will be no rush to lower interest rates due to the ongoing risk of inflation rising again, even though the labor market may show signs of weakness.
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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell dismissed the pressure from President Donald Trump for a rate cut, asserting that the Fed’s decisions are independent of presidential influence.
This announcement, along with developments in the U.S.-China trade negotiations and other related issues, will likely affect trading during today’s European session.
GOLD
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) exhibited extreme volatility in response to the Fed’s monetary policy announcement. On Wednesday, Gold plummeted over US$66, or 660 pips, reaching US$3,363.94 per troy ounce.
However, during today’s trading, Gold rebounded sharply, climbing more than US$50 to around US$3,414 per troy ounce before experiencing a downturn.
This fluctuation suggests that market players are still trying to understand the Fed’s policy direction. High-interest rates kept for an extended period generally create negative sentiment towards Gold. Additionally, diminishing hopes regarding easing tensions in the U.S.-China trade conflict are unfavorable for Gold.
Moreover, President Trump is rumored to announce trade agreements with several partner countries today, which could apply further downward pressure on Gold prices in the European trading session.
OIL
On Wednesday, Oil prices (CLS10) fell by US$1.05 to US$57.93 per barrel as the Fed noted increasing economic uncertainties. This indicates that the Fed sees rising risks of an economic slowdown, which could reduce Oil demand.
However, today Oil prices are experiencing a rebound, driven by hopes of alleviating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, alongside a potential trade agreement with other nations, leading to a better global economic outlook. This could enhance global demand, which is a positive sentiment for the commodity market.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair dropped nearly 670 points (67 pips) to 1.12982 in Wednesday’s trading, pressured by the strengthening U.S. dollar in response to the Fed’s monetary announcement. Today, EURUSD climbed to 1.13362 before reversing direction.
During the European trading session, the release of German industrial production data at 13:00 WIB could influence the movement of EURUSD. The forecast from Trading Central indicates that March’s industrial production is expected to grow by 0.5% month-on-month (MoM), compared to the previous month’s -1.3% MoM.
EURUSD could experience positive sentiment if the released data exceeds the forecast expectations.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair fell by 775 points (77.5 pips) to 1.32873 on Wednesday. Earlier this morning, the pair rose to 1.33559 before correcting downward.
Following the Fed’s announcement, GBPUSD traders are now awaiting the monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England (BoE) at 18:00 WIB. The BoE is expected to cut rates, which could put further pressure on GBPUSD.
USDJPY
The Fed’s monetary policy announcement and hopes for a cooling U.S.-China trade war saw USDJPY surge by 1.424 to 143.992 on Wednesday. Today, USDJPY is exhibiting notable volatility, with an upward trend.
This suggests that positive sentiment continues to surround this currency pair.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq showed volatility before closing trading on Wednesday at 19,957, an increase of 111 index points compared to Tuesday’s close. Today, it jumped to 20,197, indicating that market participants are optimistic about a resolution to trade tensions.
As previously mentioned, President Trump is anticipated to announce trade agreements with several partners. Additionally, negotiations between the U.S. and China are set to take place this weekend.
These sentiments will likely continue to influence Nasdaq trading during the European session.
