The heightened volatility in the financial markets that began last week continues into trading on Tuesday (June 24, 2025). This shift is largely in reaction to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, following the United States’ airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.
In retaliation, Iran launched attacks on US military bases located in Qatar and Iraq. However, many perceive these offensives as merely symbolic responses, leading to a reassuring turn in market sentiment. Notably, US President Donald Trump expressed his gratitude towards Iran for providing prior notification before targeting the largest US military base in the Middle East, emphasizing that there were no casualties or injuries from Iran’s counterattacks.
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Trump further outlined a timeline for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran. He stated on Truth Social that assuming all proceeds smoothly—as he firmly believes it will—he extends congratulations to both nations for their resilience and ingenuity in concluding what could be termed as the “12-DAY CONFLICT.”
Israel initiated the first attack on Iran on June 13. If this is indeed a 12-day conflict, it suggests a ceasefire could be anticipated within the next two days.
GOLD
Gold (XAUUSD) prices surged to $3,394 per troy ounce but subsequently retreated to close Monday’s trading at $3,368 per troy ounce. This morning, the price of Gold plummeted over $35 to $3,333.16 per troy ounce.
Gold is feeling the pressure from the “12-Day Conflict,” implying an imminent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, at least according to President Trump. While no official statements have been made by either Israel or Iran, Trump’s relaxed demeanor regarding Iran’s military response suggests a significant chance for de-escalation, which negatively impacts Gold’s market sentiment.
OIL
Oil (CLS10) prices opened trading yesterday with a sharp spike to $77.70 per barrel, but then fell dramatically to $67.20 per barrel. This morning, Oil dropped a further $2.83 to $64.37 per barrel.
Oil prices fell after Iran refrained from blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and the announced ceasefire initiatives by Trump reduced the risks of disruption to supply from the Middle East. This negative sentiment is likely to continue influencing Oil’s movements during European trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD experienced a drop on Monday morning before reversing course and closing trading at 1.15760. Compared to Friday’s closing, EURUSD gained 545 points (54.5 pips). In today’s trading, EURUSD climbed back up to 1.16143.
The US dollar has lost some of its appeal as a safe-haven asset due to the strong likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which has facilitated EURUSD’s rise. The publication of Germany’s business climate data at 15:00 WIB could further impact EURUSD’s trajectory during the European session. Forecasts from Trading Central indicate a German business climate index of 88.4 for this month, an improvement over last month’s 87.5.
Any data that exceeds the forecast may give a positive sentiment boost to EURUSD.
GBPUSD
The movement of this currency pair has closely mirrored that of EURUSD since the start of last week. GBPUSD briefly dipped to 1.33700 before rebounding and closing Monday’s trading with a rise of 705 points (70.5 pips) to 1.35189.
In today’s trading, GBPUSD has risen once more to 1.35725, reflecting a significant decline in the US dollar’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset following the potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
This sentiment will likely continue to influence market movements during the European session.
USDJPY
On Monday, USDJPY surged nearly 200 pips to 148.027 before reversing direction and closing the trading session almost stagnant at 146.071. In today’s trading, USDJPY has dropped to 145.288.
Sentiment for USDJPY flipped following Iran’s retaliation against US forces, though many view it as merely a symbolic gesture. Additionally, the prospects of a ceasefire exert further pressure on USDJPY, impacting its movements throughout the European trading session.
Nasdaq
The limited Iranian response and the perception that the war will not escalate further have propelled Nasdaq upward by nearly 200 index points to 22,071.
The possibility of a ceasefire has amplified positive sentiment around Nasdaq, lifting it to 22,281 today. Nasdaq is now approaching its all-time high of 22,318 achieved on February 18. With favorable sentiment prevailing, it is entirely possible that Nasdaq could set a new record high.
