The United States dollar continued its downward trend at the start of trading on Friday (November 13, 2025). Market concerns have risen as the potential for the release of important economic data looms following the reopening of the U.S. government. There is a risk that this data will confirm the continuing weakness of the U.S. economy, especially after private indicators like the ADP and Challenger showed a slowdown in the labor market.
On the other hand, three officials from the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates are unlikely to be cut in December. This sentiment has led to diminished market expectations for an interest rate reduction, with the probability dropping to 50% from 69% the previous week, as per data from the CME FedWatch Tool.
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This cautious sentiment is likely to continue influencing market movements in the upcoming European session.
GOLD
Gold (XAUUSD) prices reversed course and closed Thursday’s trading at $4,170.84 per troy ounce after reaching a high of $4,244 per troy ounce earlier. The downward pressure followed indications from three Fed officials that interest rates would likely remain unchanged in December.
However, at the start of trading on Friday, Gold rebounded once again, supported by the weakening U.S. dollar and increasing economic uncertainty due to data delays.
This situation is expected to be a determinant factor for Gold’s movement leading up to the European session, with the potential for high volatility to continue. There is a tendency for Gold to face pressure in response to the statements made by the three Fed officials concerning interest rates.
OIL
Oil (CLS10) prices saw a slight increase as they continued to rise to $60.64 per barrel at the beginning of trading on Friday. The action of buying the dip following a sharp decline the previous day led to renewed buying interest in the market.
Moreover, U.S. sanctions against Russia have begun to show tangible effects. It has been reported that Lukoil PJSC has started to cut back on its global oil trading operations, while nearly a third of Russia’s maritime oil exports are now hampered due to India and China halting crude oil purchases from Moscow.
Despite this, Oil prices are still overshadowed by concerns expressed by the IEA regarding global supply surpluses. The agency predicts that supply will exceed demand by 2.4 million barrels per day this year and could reach up to 4 million barrels per day next year.
These sentiments contribute to Oil prices remaining highly volatile.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair continued its three-day strengthening trend, closing Thursday’s trading at 1.16317. The weakening of the U.S. dollar remains the primary factor behind this rally, even though statements from Fed officials are tempering expectations for interest rate cuts.
In the absence of any critical data releases from the Eurozone, the movement of EURUSD during the European session is expected to still follow the direction of the U.S. dollar. This implies that there’s potential for continued upward movement.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair briefly surged to 1.31857 on Thursday but plummeted 514 points (51.4 pips) to 1.31353 at the start of trading on Friday. The economic weakness in the UK, including a fragile labor market and slower economic growth, has significantly contributed to this pressure.
Additionally, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ plans to raise taxes have heightened investor anxieties.
This sentiment is expected to continue overshadowing GBPUSD’s movements in the European session, with further decline potential still on the table.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair slipped to 154.452 after experiencing volatility in Thursday’s trading. As the European session approaches, USDJPY is fluctuating within the range of 154.309 and 154.740.
The U.S. dollar is pressured due to concerns regarding domestic economic conditions, while the Japanese yen remains weak because of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s support for large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus. She even urged the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.
These opposing sentiments create high volatility that will continue to affect USDJPY’s movements during the European session. There’s a tendency for USDJPY to remain under pressure.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq index fell sharply by 537 points to a level of 25,087 in Thursday’s trading and continues to show weakness ahead of the European session.
The primary reason for this decline is the statements from three Fed officials reaffirming that there will likely be no interest rate cuts in December, along with signs of labor market weakness identified through private indicators like ADP and Challenger, both revealing mass layoffs in October.
This situation reinforces expectations that forthcoming official U.S. data will also depict weakness, thus likely maintaining pressure on the Nasdaq during the European session.
