Gold (XAUUSD) continues to break record after record, nearly reaching the coveted US$4,000 mark per troy ounce. In morning trading on Wednesday (October 8, 2025), Gold peaked at US$3,999.20 per troy ounce, marking a new all-time high.
In comparison to Tuesday’s closing, Gold saw an increase of over US$15, equivalent to 150 pips. Over the past two days, Gold has surged nearly US$98 or 980 pips. This year has seen Gold soar with a rise of more than 50%.
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After a four-month consolidation zone, Gold’s price commenced a significant upward trajectory starting early September when the market anticipated aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. These market expectations materialized when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues decided to cut rates in September by 25 basis points (0.25%) to a range of 4%-4.25%. They also indicated further cuts might occur this month and in December.
Looking ahead to the next year, the Federal Reserve predicts only a single rate cut. However, the ongoing government shutdown has led market participants to expect even bolder moves from the Fed next year. The shutdown could result in mass layoffs of government workers if prolonged, intensifying the challenges faced by the labor market. Currently, the U.S. government shutdown has reached its eighth day.
Given these circumstances, the already weakened U.S. job market is likely to worsen, compelling the Fed to consider more aggressive rate cuts. Yet, the Fed also faces a complicated dilemma with inflation rates in the United States beginning to rise again. If the Fed is excessively aggressive in cutting rates, there is a significant risk of escalating inflation.
Moreover, if the U.S. economy fails to recover, stagflation may occur, characterized by sluggish growth coupled with rising inflation. The United States experienced a similar scenario in the 1970s, during which Gold prices soared dramatically.
