The market experienced another wave of high volatility at the start of trading on Tuesday (November 18, 2025). Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December are diminishing following hawkish remarks from three Fed officials. This sentiment was reinforced by comments from Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, who noted that the risks of a weakening labor market are now more pronounced than inflation, but emphasized that any further rate cuts should be executed gradually and with caution.
These combined remarks are adding pressure to global sentiment and are expected to significantly influence market dynamics during European trading hours.
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GOLD
Gold prices have seen a decline for three consecutive days, closing at $4,045.12 per troy ounce on Monday. Compared to Friday’s close, Gold dropped nearly $40 or 400 pips. As trading proceeds today, Gold continues to slide and is threatening to dip below the $4,000 mark.
The pressure intensifies as the hawkish stance from Fed officials curtails the likelihood of a rate cut in December, thus dampening investor interest in safe-haven assets.
Additionally, the release of last night’s New York manufacturing index put further strain on prices. The actual figure of 18.7 was significantly above the estimated 7, indicating an improvement in U.S. economic activity. This economic strengthening tends to support a tighter monetary policy stance, thereby exerting further downward pressure on Gold.
Such negative sentiment is likely to overshadow Gold’s movement during the European session.
OIL
Oil prices exhibited volatility and closed slightly down at $59.70 per barrel on Monday. As European trading approaches, prices are experiencing renewed pressure.
The recovery of Russian oil export facilities has increased global supply, coupled with concerns over potential oversupply, continues to weigh on sentiment in the energy market. This pressure is expected to prevail in Oil’s movements throughout the European trading session.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair fell by 313 points (31.3 pips) to 1.15896 on Monday. The fading expectations of a Fed rate cut bolstered the U.S. dollar, causing the EURUSD to decline.
With no significant economic data releases from the Eurozone today, the EURUSD’s movement during the European session will remain heavily influenced by the dynamics of the U.S. dollar.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD fluctuated and closed trading on Monday with a decline of 251 points (25.1 pips) at 1.31478.
As the European session approaches, the currency pair is attempting a rebound. However, uncertainty regarding the UK government’s budget policy direction keeps market participants cautious and limits potential further strengthening. The chances of continued decline also remain substantial.
USDJPY
USDJPY increased by 668 points (66.8 pips) to 155.192 on Monday, marking the highest level since early February 2025.
As the European session nears, this pair shows volatility within a range of 154.813 to 155.374. The yen remains weak due to ongoing fundamental weakness in Japan’s economic data. On the other hand, the relatively high position of USDJPY is subject to profit-taking actions, resulting in volatility. During the European session, USDJPY will likely continue to benefit from a positive sentiment, particularly due to the diminishing expectations of a Fed rate cut.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 233 points to 24,905 during Monday’s trading, with losses persisting today as it plummets to 24,606, the lowest level in the past month.
Fading expectations of a Fed rate cut are impacting stock market sentiment, especially in the technology sector, which has been sensitive to interest rate outlooks. Sell-offs in tech stocks may continue, adding further pressure on the Nasdaq.
In the European session, Nasdaq’s movement is anticipated to remain under pressure from these sentiments, leaving the potential for continued downside risk open.
