High volatility has hit the financial markets at the beginning of the European trading session on Tuesday (September 30, 2025), particularly affecting Gold. The focus remains on the risk of a shutdown (temporary closure or limitation of services) of the U.S. government.
The U.S. Congress has until the end of September 30 to reach a budget agreement to avoid a shutdown. However, the chances are slim, as Democratic party leaders have expressed significant differences with the Republican party.
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If a shutdown occurs, hundreds of thousands of government employees will be furloughed. This could delay the release of economic data, making it difficult for market participants to gauge the state of the U.S. economy.
Given the current poor state of the U.S. economy, particularly a weakening labor market, a shutdown could exacerbate the situation. This sentiment is likely to influence market movements during tonight’s trading session, alongside economic data releases.
Here are the key data points from Trading Central:
- Germany’s Inflation (year-on-year/September) at 19:00 WIB; forecast 2.3% compared to previous 2.2%
- U.S. Job Openings (JOLTs) at 21:00 WIB; forecast 7.1 million compared to the previous 7.18 million
- U.S. Consumer Sentiment (September) at 21:00 WIB; forecast 95 compared to previous 97.4
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) fell below $3,800 per troy ounce at the start of the European trading session. This decline likely occurred as a result of profit-taking actions after Gold previously reached an all-time high of $3,871 per troy ounce.
Since Monday, Gold prices soared by more than $110 to hit that record. Such a rapid increase in a short timeframe undoubtedly tempted market participants holding buy positions to liquidate their holdings and realize profits.
On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remains pressured this afternoon, indicating that the drop in Gold is due to profit-taking. Attention is still on the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, suggesting that Gold could rebound again. Especially if U.S. economic data is released worse than forecast, Gold may gain additional positive sentiment.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) have decreased to $62.44 per barrel at the start of the European trading session. Compared to Monday’s closing, Oil fell by $0.72. The decline in Oil is driven by concerns over potential oversupply. This is happening after OPEC+ announced plans to increase production again. Additionally, oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan have resumed via Turkey.
Data from China this morning revealed that the manufacturing activity index for September is at 49.8, still below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The continued contraction in the manufacturing sector might signal weak demand for Oil from the world’s second-largest consumer.
These factors will likely continue to pressure Oil during tonight’s trading session.
EURUSD
EURUSD rose to 1.17614 at the start of the European trading session, despite German retail growth data showing a slowdown. Normally, this data should exert pressure on EURUSD; however, the fact that it managed to rise indicates a weakening U.S. dollar.
The ongoing risk of a U.S. government shutdown continues to loom over the dollar, and if U.S. economic data is released worse than forecast, that pressure will increase. Therefore, EURUSD may see additional positive sentiment in tonight’s trading session.
GBPUSD
The pressure on the U.S. dollar has allowed GBPUSD to rise to 1.34518 at the start of the European trading session. With no significant economic data releases from the UK, attention has shifted towards political dynamics and economic data from the United States.
This means if U.S. economic data is released lower than forecast, and the U.S. government officially undergoes a shutdown, GBPUSD may gain additional positive sentiment.
USDJPY
USDJPY dropped 683 points (68.3 pips) to 147.831 by the start of the European trading session, continuing the sharp decline observed at the beginning of last week. This currency pair’s movement reflects significant pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Considering the imminent shutdown of the U.S. government and the predicted weakening of the U.S. economy, the pressure on USDJPY will likely remain significant during tonight’s trading session.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq index is trading within a narrow range of 24,754 – 24,885 at the start of the European trading session. The Nasdaq is close to its all-time high of 25,026, and the risk of a shutdown may pose pressure on the Nasdaq during tonight’s trading session.
