The US dollar strengthened at the beginning of the European trading session on Thursday (October 30, 2025), responding to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement earlier. The Fed has lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to a range of 3.75%-4%. This marks the second consecutive month of rate cuts by the Fed.
Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is still uncertain. This contrasts with projections made back in September when the Fed reduced rates and released a dot plot forecasting two more cuts this year (in October and December) and only one cut next year.
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This sentiment is likely to impact market movements in tonight’s trading, alongside the monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB) at 20:15 WIB.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) rose at the start of the European session, briefly climbing above US$4,000 per troy ounce before retreating. Powell’s comments diminished expectations for a rate cut in December.
According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to 67%, down from 90% on Wednesday. This trend has generated negative sentiment for gold.
Moreover, US President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, where Trump claimed Xi agreed on “almost everything” with him. This development has eased the risk of a trade war between the two nations, raising the likelihood of a trade agreement. Consequently, gold’s appeal as a safe haven has diminished.
These two factors have made gold susceptible to downward pressure.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) showed little movement at the beginning of the European session, trading within the range of US$59.83-US$60.42 per barrel. Oil is currently receiving positive sentiment from the actual stock data in the United States, which has dropped significantly below forecasts.
Additionally, the meeting between the US and China remains a key focus, as investors hope trade tensions will subside, leading to an improved global economy and increased oil demand. This sentiment is expected to continue influencing oil movements in tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair retraced gains at the start of the European session, after briefly reaching US$1.16374. The pair reversed its ascent despite positive economic growth data (gross domestic product/GDP) for Germany and the Eurozone in Q3 2025, which surpassed forecasts.
This indicates that market participants are awaiting the ECB’s monetary policy announcement later tonight. It is anticipated that the ECB will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.15%, but any signs of potential future rate cuts could put pressure on the EURUSD.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD exchange rate fell to 1.31740 at the start of the European trading session after rising to 1.32187 previously. This movement reflects the strength of the US dollar following the Fed’s rate announcement.
As a result, there is potential for further downward pressure on GBPUSD in tonight’s trading.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair surged by 1.344 points (134.4 pips) to 153.999 at the start of the European session. This level is the highest since February 13.
The increase is attributed to the Fed’s cautious approach regarding future rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has not signaled any intention to raise rates. Consequently, USDJPY has received positive sentiment and continues to climb.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq maintained its upward movement after setting a new all-time high at 26,397. The index received a boost from Powell’s assurance that the AI boom will not trigger a crash like the dot-com bubble. This view seems to reinforce the idea that Nasdaq’s impressive gains this year are indeed backed by strong fundamentals.
This sentiment is expected to influence Nasdaq’s movements in tonight’s trading.
