The release of disappointing economic data from the United States has further pressured the dollar in trading on Thursday, and this trend may continue into Friday’s session (February 21, 2025). The latest figures indicate that unemployment claims for the week ending February 15 reached 219,000, slightly lower than the forecast of 220,000 by Trading Central, but higher than the previous week’s figure of 214,000.
Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for this month was reported at 18.1, a significant decline from last month’s 44.3. Furthermore, various incoming economic reports are expected to influence trading during the European session.
Recommended
Recommended
Recommended
Recommended
Here’s a summary of pertinent data from Trading Central:
- UK retail sales data (year-on-year/YoY) at 14:00 WIB; forecast 1% compared to previous 3.6%
- German manufacturing PMI data (February) at 15:30 WIB; forecast 45.1 versus prior 45
- German services PMI data (February) at 15:30 WIB; forecast 51.9 against previous 52.5
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI data (February) at 16:00 WIB; forecast 46.8 vs. prior 46.6
- Eurozone services PMI data (February) at 16:00 WIB; forecast 51.2 versus previous 51.3
- UK manufacturing PMI data (February) at 16:30 WIB; forecast 48.5 vs. previous 48.3
- UK services PMI data (February) at 16:30 WIB; forecast 51 vs. previous 50.8
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) reached an all-time high of $2,954.82 per troy ounce on Thursday but later retraced, closing at $2,939.30 per troy ounce.
Today, Gold has exhibited high volatility, briefly climbing to $2,949.70 before dipping down to $2,926.40. The sentiment around Gold remains bullish given the strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty.
Nevertheless, its elevated price has prompted some profit-taking, contributing to Gold’s volatility. Should the U.S dollar face renewed pressure—especially in response to data from Europe—there’s potential for Gold to regain positive sentiment.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) managed to record four consecutive days of gains, closing Thursday’s trading at $72.57 per barrel. Ongoing peace talks relating to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have yet to yield results, have fueled this increase due to the lack of additional oil supply from Russia to the global market.
This sentiment will likely continue to affect Oil’s movement during the European trading session.
EURUSD
The poor U.S. economic data caused the EURUSD to spike nearly 800 points (80 pips) to 1.05015 during Thursday’s trading. In the European session, the release of purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) for manufacturing and services from Germany and the Eurozone may further influence the EURUSD rate.
Considering the forecasts mentioned earlier, there is potential for the EURUSD to garner positive sentiment if the data comes in higher than expected.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD surged 835 points (83.5 pips) to 1.26686 on Thursday, achieving a two-month peak. In addition to the pressure on the U.S. dollar, the GBPUSD has received a boost from better-than-expected economic growth and employment data.
These figures suggest that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term. The sentiment for GBPUSD could further improve if retail sales and PMI data for manufacturing and services in the UK are released above forecasted levels.
USDJPY
The USDJPY plummeted 1,860 points (186 pips) to 149.609 during Thursday’s trading, reaching its lowest point in 11 weeks. The Yen has strengthened, driven by recent economic data from Japan that present opportunities for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to consider increasing interest rates soon.
Moreover, as March approaches, which marks the end of Japan’s fiscal year, many corporations and institutional investors are repatriating funds and assets from overseas, bolstering the value of the Yen.
This sentiment is expected to impact USDJPY’s performance during the European trading session.
Nasdaq
Profit-taking led to a sharp drop in the Nasdaq, which fell 271 index points to 21,951 on Thursday before recovering slightly to close at 22,135. The Nasdaq remains near record highs, and ongoing economic uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s import tariff policies has triggered profit-taking activity.
On Wednesday, Trump indicated plans to raise tariffs on certain products shortly, which has generated negative sentiment toward Nasdaq and this sentiment will likely carry into the European trading session.
