The pressure on the US dollar continued into the trading session on Monday (February 17, 2025). The US dollar, typically viewed as a safe haven, faced challenges due to President Donald Trump’s reciprocal policy not being implemented anytime soon, which lowered the risk of a worsening trade war.
Moreover, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, facilitated by the United States, are reported to start imminently, further diminishing the attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe haven. This sentiment is expected to influence European trading.
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GOLD
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) plummeted over $47 or 470 pips to $2,882.06 per troy ounce last Friday. Gold had been approaching its all-time high before a wave of profit taking sent prices tumbling.
Today, Gold exhibited volatility before rising to around $2,904 per troy ounce. Given the high position and increasing risk appetite of market participants responding to the proposed peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, there is potential for Gold to experience more profit taking.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) dropped significantly last Friday, continuing their decline to $70.12 per troy ounce. This is the lowest level seen in the past six weeks.
The drop in oil prices is attributed to the potential conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war. If this occurs, sanctions on Russia’s energy sector may be eased, leading to an increase in oil supply. This prospect casts a negative sentiment over oil, which is expected to persist in European trading.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair marked four consecutive days of gains, closing Friday’s trading at 1.04910. As noted earlier, the appeal of the US dollar is waning, allowing the EURUSD to continue its upward trajectory.
Moreover, the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could positively affect Europe, adding further favorable sentiment for the EURUSD.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD also surged in last Friday’s trading, even reaching a two-month high. In addition to the pressures on the US dollar, the pound sterling received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic growth data (Gross Domestic Product/GDP) for the UK in the fourth quarter of 2024.
This GDP data suggests that the Bank of England (BoE) may not cut interest rates again in the near future. This positive sentiment is expected to influence GBPUSD movement today.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair fell 793 points (79.3 pips) to 151.503 in today’s trading, with the release of Japan’s GDP bolstering the yen amidst the US dollar’s weaknesses.
Japan’s GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 was reported to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.8%, exceeding the Trading Central forecast of 2.1% and the previous month’s growth of 1.2%.
This release opens the door for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again soon, strengthening the yen. Consequently, USDJPY is likely to be under negative sentiment during European trading.
Nasdaq
Last Friday, the Nasdaq broke its all-time high, gaining 132 index points. Today, the Nasdaq rose another 74 index points to reach 22,280, establishing a new record high.
The Nasdaq has been boosted by the positive sentiment from Trump’s reciprocal policy not being rolled out soon, along with the prospect of ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This sentiment is expected to continue to impact the Nasdaq’s movement in European trading.
