The release of the economic growth data (gross domestic product/GDP) of the United States exceeded forecasts for the second quarter of 2025, along with the monetary policy announcement by the Fed, leading to a strong US dollar on Wednesday’s trading.
In the early hours, the Fed maintained the interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that more data would be assessed before deciding whether to lower interest rates in September. Additionally, he noted that Fed officials believe the current slightly tight monetary policy remains appropriate, as inflation is expected to rise again.
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This statement has led the market to view the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut in September at only 41%, a significant decrease from over 60% previously, based on data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
This sentiment is expected to influence market movements during Thursday’s European session (31/7/2025).
GOLD
Gold (XAUUSD) prices plummeted by $51 or 510 pips to $3,274.86 per troy ounce in Wednesday’s trading. The strong US dollar has created downward pressure on gold.
Moreover, the prolonged high-interest rates have kept US Treasury yields elevated, making gold—a non-yielding asset—less attractive. Both gold and Treasury are considered safe havens, but with high yield conditions, investors may prefer Treasury.
This sentiment is likely to impact gold trading in the European session.
OIL
Oil (CLS10) prices increased by over $1 to $70.28 per barrel in Wednesday’s trading. Market players are considering the potential for sanctions against Russia by the United States targeting the energy sector.
This could likely reduce oil supplies from Russia, which would positively affect oil sentiment.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair dropped by 1,431 points (143.1 pips) to 1.13999, marking its lowest level in the past month and a half.
The strong US dollar post GDP data release, along with declining probabilities of a rate cut from the Fed in September, put pressure on EURUSD. This downward pressure is expected to continue in the European session.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD declined for four consecutive days, finishing at 1.32316 on Wednesday. Compared to Tuesday’s close, GBPUSD fell by 1.128 points (112.8 pips), and has plummeted over 340 pips in four days.
The likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in September is diminishing, while the Bank of England is predicted to cut rates next week, adding further pressure on GBPUSD.
USDJPY
USDJPY surged by 1.055 points (105.5 pips) to 149.446 during Wednesday’s trading, reaching its highest level in nearly four months.
This high positioning led to profit-taking actions that pushed USDJPY down to 148.588 today. However, the strong US dollar benefits from positive trade agreements between the US and the EU, along with GDP data that exceeded expectations, and the Fed’s stance on maintaining tight monetary policy.
Thus, there is potential for USDJPY to rise again during the European session.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq skyrocketed and broke its all-time high from yesterday through Thursday’s trading. Today, the Nasdaq achieved a record at 23,808, rising nearly 150 index points compared to Wednesday’s close.
This increase follows the release of US GDP data that surpassed expectations. The sharp gains in stocks like Meta and Microsoft, after reporting impressive earnings, have also contributed to the Nasdaq’s rise and are expected to influence trading in the European session.
