The recent downgrade of the United States’ credit rating by Moody’s has sparked volatility in the financial markets, which was evident on Tuesday and is expected to continue into trading on Wednesday (May 21, 2025).
Furthermore, reports of Israel’s potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities have contributed to significant market movements this morning.
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GOLD
The credit rating downgrade of the U.S. has resulted in a steady increase in Gold (XAUUSD) prices since the beginning of last week. Yesterday, Gold surged nearly $60 or 600 pips, and this morning, it has risen by nearly $25, reaching $3,314.52 per troy ounce.
This morning’s Gold prices have also been buoyed by reports of Israel’s intentions to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The potential strike seems contingent on the outcome of ongoing nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The news emerged after Iran indicated that negotiations would be futile if the U.S. insisted on a complete halt to nuclear enrichment.
The escalating tensions have heightened the demand for Gold as a safe haven asset, influencing market sentiment during the European trading session.
OIL
The news of Israel’s strike plans has propelled Oil (CLS10) prices to $64.15 per barrel this morning, marking an increase of $1.92 since Tuesday’s market close.
Concerns about potential disruptions to supply from the Middle East amid the planned attack have driven up Oil prices. This sentiment is likely to continue affecting market movements during the European trading session.
EURUSD
EURUSD has risen for two consecutive days, closing Tuesday at 1.12808. Compared to Monday’s close, EURUSD has increased by 434 points (43.4 pips). The currency pair is rising despite reports from Germany showing a decline in producer prices (PPI) in April.
This indicates continued pressure on the U.S. dollar, as seen with EURUSD climbing back to 1.13263 this morning. Ongoing pressure on the dollar will likely remain the predominant sentiment in the European trading session.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD rose by 374 points (37.4 pips) to 1.33926 during Tuesday’s trading and continued its ascent to 1.34352 today. The currency pair is approaching its highest level since February 2022. In addition to the weakening dollar, GBPUSD benefits from a positive sentiment, as the BoE is not expected to lower interest rates soon.
In the European trading session, the release of UK’s inflation data (CPI) at 13:00 WIB could drive GBPUSD movements. Data from Trading Central forecasts CPI to grow by 3.3% year-on-year (YoY), up from the 2.6% YoY of the previous month. The core CPI, excluding energy and food items, is predicted to grow by 1% YoY, significantly higher than the previous month’s 0.5% YoY.
If the data exceeds forecasts, GBPUSD might gain further positive sentiment.
USDJPY
USDJPY experienced high volatility during Thursday’s trading before recording a drop of 323 points (32.3 pips) to 144.452. This morning, USDJPY fell further by 731 points (73.1 pips) to 143.721.
Despite the backdrop of declining exports from Japan, suggesting a negative sentiment for the yen, USDJPY remains under pressure. The effect of increased import tariffs imposed by the U.S. was evident in April. The continuous decline in USDJPY signifies the intense pressure faced by the dollar due to the U.S. credit rating downgrade. This sentiment will still influence USDJPY’s movements during the European trading session.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index fell by 97 points to 21,419 during Tuesday’s trading, a result of profit taking activity. Previously, the Nasdaq had been advancing close to a three-month high, moving back into bullish market territory.
Such sharp increases and high levels triggered profit taking. The news regarding Israel’s planned strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities may prolong the profit-taking activities during the European trading session.
