The recently released core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data for the United States for September met market expectations at 2.8% year-on-year (YoY), down from the previous month’s 2.9%. This has sparked movement in the markets at the start of trading on Monday (December 8, 2025). The data enhances optimism that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is likely to cut interest rates in the early hours of Thursday.
Currently, the market is forecasting an 88% chance of a Fed rate cut, an increase from 66% last month, according to CME FedWatch.
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These sentiments are expected to continue influencing market movements during the European trading session. Importantly, several key economic data releases are scheduled for today. Here’s an overview from Trading Central:
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Germany’s industrial production (month-on-month/October) at 14:00 WIB; forecast 0.4% compared to 1.3% previously.
GOLD
Gold (XAUUSD) prices briefly reached $4,259.23 per troy ounce before eventually closing down $10.23 at $4,198.04 last Friday. As we approach the European session today, Gold is once again attempting to gain strength.
Positive sentiment surrounds Gold as the core PCE inflation data from the U.S. meets expectations, allowing room for the Fed to consider an interest rate cut on Thursday.
During the European session, this sentiment is likely to continue supporting Gold’s movement.
It’s noteworthy that the spread on Gold (XAUUSD) products widened last Friday (November 28, 2025) due to technical issues at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is a significant reference point for gold pricing and liquidity worldwide. These technical issues have been resolved by CME, and the spread on Gold products has returned to normal.
OIL
The price of Oil (CLS10) rose by $0.42 to $60.12 per barrel last week. The failure of the U.S.-Russia meeting to produce a breakthrough in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian infrastructure has been the main driver for Oil’s price increase.
The market is also wary of potential U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, following warnings from Rystad Energy that such actions could reduce oil supply by about 1.1 million barrels per day. Combined with expectations for a Fed rate cut on Wednesday, this creates an additional positive sentiment for Oil.
This sentiment is predicted to continue impacting Oil during the European session.
EURUSD
EURUSD saw a slight increase of 8 points to 1.16431 following some volatility on Friday. Today, EURUSD opened with a gap down but is attempting to rise again. Strong economic data from Germany and the Eurozone acts as a positive force for this currency pair.
Conversely, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is anticipated.
As the European session unfolds, German industrial production data will be the focus. Should the actual data fall short of expectations, EURUSD could face downward pressure.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD saw an increase of 92 points or 9 pips to 1.33310 last Friday, and is again attempting to strengthen even after opening with a gap down. The weakness of the U.S. dollar due to anticipated Fed rate cuts continues to be a major driving factor.
In the absence of significant data releases from the UK, GBPUSD’s movement will likely be influenced by the direction of the U.S. dollar during the European session.
USDJPY
USDJPY managed to bounce back, rising 326 points or 32 pips to 155.366 after dipping to 154.344 last Friday. Ahead of the European session, this currency pair has moved volatily within the range of 154.901–155.379.
Recently, USDJPY has started facing downward pressure, touching its lowest level in the last three weeks, as speculation grows that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates next week. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure due to expectations of a Fed rate cut.
This sentiment is expected to persist, placing pressure on USDJPY during the European session.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq rose by 102 points to 25,734 after reaching 25,866 last week. As we approach the European session, the Nasdaq continues its upward trajectory.
The main catalyst is the market’s optimism surrounding the Fed’s anticipated interest rate cuts on Thursday, amplified by the core PCE inflation data meeting expectations.
This sentiment is likely to keep propelling the Nasdaq throughout the European trading session.
