The price of Gold (XAUUSD) began trading in November with a gap down at $3,984.46 per troy ounce. Compared to the closing price on Friday, Gold has decreased by more than $18, which is approximately 180 pips.
As the trading moves into winter in the United States, trading hours in Indonesia have shifted back by one hour. Gold trading, which previously started at 5:00 AM Jakarta time, now commences at 6:00 AM.
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Gold continues to face negative sentiment due to The Fed’s cautious stance regarding monetary policy for December. Recently, The Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) to a range of 3.75%-4%. This marks the second consecutive month of rate cuts initiated by The Fed.
Following this announcement, Governor Jerome Powell indicated that a further reduction in December is still uncertain. This stance is notably different from September’s projections. During that month, The Fed not only lowered interest rates but also released a dot plot, indicating expectations for two additional rate cuts this year (in October and December) and only one in the following year.
Such statements have led to diminished expectations for a rate cut in December. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in December is currently at 71%, a significant drop from over 90% at the beginning of the week. Consequently, Gold has been affected negatively by this sentiment.
Additionally, pressure on Gold is also arising from the recent trade ceasefire between the United States and China. Last Thursday, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping signed an agreement in which China agreed to temporarily suspend or lift restrictions on the export of rare earth elements, as well as commit to purchasing more American agricultural products.
On the other hand, the U.S. has canceled a 100% tariff increase that was scheduled to take effect on November 1. Moreover, several import tariffs on Chinese goods have been reduced, including a cut in the fentanyl tariff from 20% to 10%.
This trade truce has diminished Gold’s appeal as a safe haven, resulting in further downward pressure on its price.
