The US dollar continues to face pressure at the start of European trading on Tuesday (March 18, 2025). Data releases from the United States earlier this week have bolstered speculation of an economic slowdown, leading to further weakening of the US dollar.
The economic data set to be released from the US tonight could trigger significant market movements. Here are the details from Trading Central:
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- US housing starts data (month-on-month/February); forecast -1.9% vs previous -9.8%
- US building permits data (month-on-month/February); forecast -0.2% vs previous -0.6%
GOLD
Gold prices surged in early European trading, breaking the all-time record by reaching US$ 3,028.47. Compared to Monday’s close, the price of gold has increased by US$ 27.76.
The precious metal continues to receive positive sentiment fueled by escalating trade war risks and a slowing US economy. Should the US economic data released tonight come in lower than forecasts, gold could gain even more positive sentiment.
OIL
Crude oil prices (CLS10) rose during early European trading, hitting a daily peak of US$ 68.65 per barrel. This marks an increase of US$ 1.21 from Monday’s close.
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has been a driving force behind rising oil prices. The United States has conducted airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen, with the President stating that such actions will continue until the Houthis cease attacking vessels in the Red Sea.
This sentiment is expected to continue influencing oil movements during tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair extended its gains, reaching 1.09547 during early European trading, the highest point in more than four months.
The increase is bolstered by positive sentiment after ZEW reported Germany’s economic sentiment for this month at 51.6, surpassing the Trading Central forecast of 45 and showing significant improvement from last month’s figure of 26. Additionally, eurozone economic sentiment was reported at 39.8, also above the Trading Central forecast of 38.
Considering this, should the US economic data tonight fall short of forecasts, there is a potential for EURUSD to gain further positive sentiment.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD rebounded to 1.30046 in early European trading after previously dipping to 1.29674. This movement suggests a weaker US dollar, while the British pound remains strong as the market anticipates the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement this week.
If US economic data tonight is lower than forecasts, the expectations for a slowing US economy will strengthen, potentially providing additional positive sentiment for GBPUSD.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair trimmed its gains after peaking at 149.902 in early European trading. This movement indicates market participants are awaiting the monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tomorrow.
Traders will be keenly observing for signs regarding when interest rates might be raised again. Until that announcement, USDJPY is likely to remain volatile and could experience downward pressure if US economic data released tonight is below forecast.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index fell in early European trading, reaching a daily low of 19,711. This follows two consecutive days of gains for the index.
The downturn reflects negative sentiment stemming from trade war risks and the broader concerns about a slowing US economy, with pressures likely to intensify if tonight’s US economic data is lower than forecasts, indicating weakness in the US housing sector.
