The global market volatility has surged following the trade consensus reached by US and Chinese officials after their meeting in London. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick announced his return to Washington to secure President Trump’s approval. Meanwhile, market focus is now on the US inflation data set to be released tonight, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction.
Here are the data points from Trading Central:
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US CPI data at 19:30 WIB; forecast 2.5% versus previous 2.3%.
US oil stock data at 21:30 WIB; forecast – versus previous -4.304M.
GOLD
Gold prices managed to rise during the European session to $3,348 per troy ounce, though the increase appears to be limited. This price uptick occurred amid the agreement reached between US and Chinese officials concerning trade issues, following a second day of talks in London.
Additionally, the market is awaiting the annual US inflation data, which is expected to rise to 2.5% from the earlier 2.3%. This inflation increase could bolster the US Dollar, as expectations rise that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period. Overall, tonight’s fundamental data is anticipated to exert downward pressure on gold prices.
OIL
Oil prices remain close to this week’s high at $66.26 per barrel during the European session, buoyed by the consensus on trade policies between China and the United States. As the two largest economies and major oil consumers, this agreement enhances expectations for global crude demand.
Furthermore, projections of a decline in US crude oil reserves to be released tonight also support positive market sentiment. With this combination of fundamental factors, oil prices are expected to potentially continue their upward trend in the short term.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair is experiencing gains during today’s European trading session, rising to 1.1445. This increase is attributed to the weakening of the US Dollar ahead of the US inflation data release.
However, traders should remain cautious as the anticipated rise in annual US inflation data tonight could rekindle demand for the US Dollar, thereby pressuring the EURUSD pair downward.
GBPUSD
After dipping to a low of 1.3464 at the start of trading on Tuesday (June 11, 2025), the GBPUSD pair has made a slight recovery to 1.3505. Prior to this, the currency pair was under pressure from selling activities triggered by deteriorating UK labor data.
Pressure on the GBPUSD is likely to persist through tonight’s US trading session, given that US inflation data is forecasted to show an increase. Such inflation rises could strengthen the US Dollar and further weigh down the GBPUSD.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair continued its ascent into the European trading session before becoming more stable (sideways) around 145.130. This strength has emerged amid the trade agreement reached between US and Chinese officials and in anticipation of the inflation data release for May.
This combination of fundamental factors may still drive the USD/JPY pair to sustain its upward trend in tonight’s trading.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq remains robust during this European afternoon session, close to a new daily high of 22,000, with potential for further gains tonight. This rise is supported by the market’s positive response to the trade agreement news between the US and China.
US and Chinese officials reached a consensus on trade after their second day of discussions in London. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick shared that he and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer would head back to Washington to ensure President Trump agrees to the framework.
