Financial markets are facing high volatility at the beginning of trading on Friday (December 5, 2025). Initial jobless claims in the United States (US) for the week ending November 29 recorded 191,000, the lowest level in three years, significantly better than the forecast of 220,000 and the previous week’s 216,000. This figure indicates that the US labor market remains relatively strong, contrasting with the weaker ADP employment data for November.
On the other hand, expectations for a cut in Federal Reserve (The Fed) interest rates remain high at 87% according to CME FedWatch, despite the drop in jobless claims. Market participants assess the dovish signals from The Fed officials, the weak ADP data, and the Challenger report noting 71,000 layoffs in November as supportive factors for a potential interest rate cut next week.
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These sentiments are likely to impact the market during the European trading session. Important economic data releases need to be monitored today. Here is the data from Trading Central:
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German factory orders (month-on-month/October) at 14:00 WIB; forecast 0.4% vs previous 1.1%.
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US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation (year-on-year/September) at 22:00 WIB; forecast 2.8% vs previous 2.7%.
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Core PCE inflation in the US (year-on-year/September) at 22:00 WIB; forecast 2.8% vs previous 2.9%.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) closed up slightly by $5.68 or 56.8 pips to $4,208.27 per troy ounce yesterday. Ahead of the European session today, Gold initially dropped to $4,194.78 per troy ounce but then rebounded to $4,218.47 per troy ounce.
This situation indicates that the market is waiting for the release of the US PCE inflation data later in the evening, data projected to have a substantial impact on expectations for a The Fed rate cut next week. Despite strong US jobless claims data, market players still see a significant potential for rate reduction.
These sentiments are expected to continue influencing Gold during the European session.
It is noteworthy that the spread on Gold (XAUUSD) widened last Friday (November 28, 2025) due to technical disruptions experienced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a key reference point for gold prices and liquidity globally. The technical issues have since been resolved by CME, and the spreads on Gold products have returned to normal.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) rose by $0.61 to $59.7 per barrel, marking the second consecutive day of gains. The failure of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine means that additional Russian oil supplies will not enter the global market anytime soon. This is compounded by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, further tightening global supply potential.
Ahead of the European session, Oil faced some early pressure, but escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela captured attention. US President Donald Trump hinted at taking actions that could threaten Venezuela’s oil production of 1.1 million barrels per day, alleviating concerns over oversupply.
These sentiments are likely to maintain a positive outlook for Oil during the European session.
EURUSD
EURUSD fell by 262 points or 26 pips to 1.16423 yesterday. The rebound of the US dollar due to strong jobless claims data was the primary pressure factor.
However, ahead of the European session, EURUSD is attempting to recover. Accelerating inflation in the eurozone and improved retail sales provide additional positive sentiment. Meanwhile, the US dollar is under renewed pressure from strong expectations for a rate cut.
The release of German factory orders data will be significant. If the data is weaker than forecasted, EURUSD may face further downward pressure.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD fell by 251 points or 25 pips to 1.33218 on Thursday, following the strengthening of the US dollar due to solid labor market data.
Ahead of the European session, GBPUSD is attempting to gain strength. Price movements remain heavily influenced by the dollar, which has weakened today as expectations for a Fed rate cut remain open. Additionally, market participants are awaiting the PCE inflation data later tonight, which could exert further pressure on the US dollar.
USDJPY
USDJPY initially dropped to 154.507 before clawing back some losses and closing down by 106 points or 10 pips to 155.040 in yesterday’s trading. The US dollar rebounded following positive jobless claims data, but pressure resurfaced ahead of the European session.
The yen continues to receive support from increasing speculation of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike this month. This sentiment is expected to influence USDJPY in the European session.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq index fell slightly by 13 points to 25,632 after experiencing high volatility. Profit-taking actions momentarily pressured the index, but declines were mitigated by rebounds in Nvidia and Meta shares.
Ahead of the European session, the Nasdaq is attempting to rise again. The prospect of a Fed rate cut next week continues to be a major driver of positive sentiment.
