The initial data release of the flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for Europe has set the tone for financial market movements at the beginning of European trading on Tuesday (September 23, 2025). The corresponding data for the United States is set to be released tonight and will capture the attention of market participants, as it may reflect the state of the business environment this month. Attention will also be focused on the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Here are the details from Trading Central:
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- Flash US manufacturing PMI (September) at 20:45 WIB: forecast 52 versus a previous 53
- Flash US services PMI (September) at 20:45 WIB: forecast 53 versus a previous 54.5
- Powell’s speech at 23:35 WIB
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) have surged, breaking the all-time high at $3,791.04 per troy ounce. Compared to Monday’s closing, gold has risen over $44 and is edging closer to $3,800 per troy ounce.
The favorable market sentiments for gold were further boosted by an influx of investors in Europe and North America into gold-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Data from the World Gold Council (WGC) revealed a substantial inflow of $1.9 billion in August alone. In North America, the inflow value reached even $4.1 billion. This significant inflow indicates an increasing attractiveness of gold among investors in both Europe and North America.
The release of US data and Powell’s upcoming speech could significantly influence gold prices tonight. If the released data shows worse results than the forecast, it will likely add to the positive sentiments surrounding gold before attention shifts to Powell’s address.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) have rebounded to $62.68 per barrel at the start of European trading after previously dipping to $61.83. This increase comes after the OECD raised its projection for global economic growth this year to 3.2%, up from the 2.9% forecast made in June.
This rise suggests potential economic improvement in Q4-2025, which may lead to increased demand for oil. This sentiment will continue to influence oil price movements throughout tonight’s trading session.
EURUSD
EURUSD has shown volatility, trading within the range of 1.17776-1.18198 at the beginning of the European session. Data from Germany revealed a manufacturing PMI of 48.5 for this month, lower than the Trading Central forecast of 50 and the previous month’s value of 49.8. However, the services PMI reported at 52.5 surpassed the forecast of 49.9 and the prior month’s 49.3.
This mixed data release has contributed to EURUSD’s volatility. However, if tonight’s economic data from the US comes in below expectations, there is potential for EURUSD to gain positive sentiment.
GBPUSD
The release of the UK PMI data initially caused GBPUSD to drop to 1.34868 before it rebounded. The manufacturing PMI for the UK was reported at 46.2 this month, falling short of the Trading Central forecast of 47.5 and August’s release of 47. The services PMI reported at 51.9 also underperformed against the forecast of 53.8 and last month’s figure of 54.2.
This data indicates a worsening economic condition in the UK, showing a deeper contraction in the manufacturing sector and a slowdown in the services sector.
Nevertheless, the rebound of GBPUSD indicates that the US dollar is under some pressure. Hence, if this evening’s US economic data is worse than expected, GBPUSD may gain positive sentiment.
USDJPY
USDJPY has been trading within a narrow range of 147.506-147.863 during the early European trading session. More significant movement might occur tonight, especially if the US economic data experienced declines against the forecast, potentially putting downward pressure on USDJPY.
A larger movement could react to Powell’s speech, particularly regarding monetary policy discussions.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq has been trading within a tight range around 25,000, nearing an all-time high. The index reached the 25,000 mark due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the rise of Nvidia stocks.
If the US economic data released tonight falls below expectations, it could reinforce expectations for a more aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year. Consequently, there is potential for the Nasdaq to increase again. Powell’s speech could further heighten Nasdaq’s volatility.
