The US Dollar faced pressure at the start of European trading on Thursday (October 2, 2025). With no significant economic data releases from Europe, the pressure is mainly due to the ongoing government shutdown in the United States.
Later this evening, the US will release several economic figures, as provided by Trading Central:
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- US unemployment claims (Sept/27); forecast 223K compared to the previous 218K
- US factory orders (month-on-month/Aug); forecast 1.4% against the previous -1.3%.
Shutdown of the US government may affect the release of these economic data. The shutdown is likely to continue this week, as the US Senate is on holiday in observance of Yom Kippur. They are expected to resume voting on budget spending this Friday.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) reversed direction and increased at the start of European trading, reaching a daily high of $3,883.79 per troy ounce. Earlier this morning, Gold dropped to $3,852.82 per troy ounce due to profit taking.
No significant drivers for Gold have emerged yet. The shutdown remains a catalyst for Gold. The last shutdown occurred from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting for 35 days, marking the longest in history.
During that period, Gold experienced a significant increase. Looking back at past events, this current shutdown is still generating a positive sentiment for Gold.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) fell to $61.21 per barrel after reaching as high as $62.50 per barrel. This movement indicates the pressure Oil is experiencing, continuing a decline over the last four days.
Oil is under pressure due to concerns about increasing supply after OPEC+ plans to boost production again. On the other hand, demand from China remains weak, as does the situation in the United States impacted by the shutdown.
Both factors will continue to influence Oil prices during tonight’s trading session.
EURUSD
EURUSD rose to 1.17583 during the early European session. Largely unaffected by critical economic data releases from the Eurozone, EURUSD’s rise is influenced by the weakened US Dollar.
With the likelihood of no significant US economic data tonight, EURUSD could continue to rise.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD climbed to 1.39099 at the onset of the European trading session before experiencing a correction. The pressure on the US Dollar continues to be the main driver for this currency pair.
This suggests that GBPUSD has the potential to rise again in tonight’s trading.
USDJPY
USDJPY dropped to 146.596 at the start of European trading after previously climbing to 147.378. The reversal of USDJPY indicates significant pressure on the US Dollar due to the shutdown of the government.
Conversely, the yen has strengthened following the release of the BoJ minutes, signalling a possible interest rate hike this month. These two factors have led USDJPY to record a sharp decline over four consecutive days, totaling more than 2,700 points (270 pips).
Given the possibility of a delayed US economic data release tonight, pressure on USDJPY may continue.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq continues its climb and has set a new all-time high at 25,122. The Nasdaq is unfazed by the negative effects of the US government shutdown. Market participants draw comparisons to Nasdaq’s performance during the shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019. While there was a drop then, the index rebounded continuously afterward.
This sentiment is likely to affect Nasdaq’s movement in tonight’s trading.
