As the release of key inflation data from the United States approaches, Gold prices are wavering under selling pressure coupled with a strengthening US Dollar. This movement is influenced by prevailing geopolitical tensions and expectations regarding potential monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, which will be crucial for the future direction of Gold prices.
According to Trading Central:
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Core PCE inflation in the US is expected to be released at 19:30 WIB; forecasted at 0.2% compared to the previous 0.0%
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) faced downward pressure during the European session, dropping to $3,287 as demand for the US Dollar increased ahead of the critical inflation report, specifically the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Throughout the European trading hours, Gold remained consolidated below the $3,300 mark, reflecting market participants’ cautious stance as they await Federal Reserve policy direction. Trading repositioning ahead of this data provided support for the US Dollar, which consequently dampened demand for Gold. However, selling pressure remains limited as traders have yet to fully commit to aggressive bearish positions.
External factors are also supporting Gold prices as a safe haven asset, including geopolitical strife from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East. Additionally, uncertainty is heightened by a US federal appeals court decision reinstating trade tariffs from the Trump era. Market sentiment is further influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon, which tends to limit the US Dollar’s strength and offers further support to Gold. Currently, market attention is focused on the PCE data release, which could signal important shifts in future monetary policy.
OIL
Oil prices increased to $61.42 during the European session following short covering after a sharp decline due to the US Appeals Court ruling that lifted Trump-era trade tariffs. This decision raised fresh concerns over global trade uncertainty and oil demand. The US government continues its negotiations with Japan and China, but progress has been minimal, which adds pressure to crude oil prices.
Looking ahead, Oil prices are likely to remain volatile depending on developments in trade negotiations and global demand data. Should talks improve and demand rise, prices may continue to strengthen. However, prolonged tensions could see selling pressure testing nearby support levels again.
EURUSD
EURUSD faced selling pressure as the US Dollar strengthened ahead of the PCE inflation data release. The Dollar had previously dipped sharply after the US federal appeals court reversed the ban on Trump-era trade tariffs, raising concerns about trade policy and fiscal stability in the US. Weak economic data from the US, including rising unemployment claims and contraction in Q1 GDP, further pressured the USD.
During the European session, disappointing German Retail Sales data added to worries about the Eurozone economy, although the impact was limited. Market focus is now shifting to the forthcoming German inflation figures, which are expected to provide insight into ongoing inflationary pressures. If German inflation data indicate sustained pressures, EURUSD could experience further declines.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair weakened to 1.3454 during Friday’s European session, coinciding with a slight recovery in the US Dollar ahead of the release of April’s PCE inflation data. The Dollar gained traction after a US appeals court temporarily halted a lower court’s ruling regarding Trump-era trade tariffs, which raised investors’ cautiousness regarding US trade policy outlook.
Despite facing daily corrections, GBPUSD still holds potential to finish May with its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The Pound remains supported by expectations that the Bank of England will maintain a moderate monetary policy and optimism surrounding trade negotiations between the UK and the US, India, and the European Union.
USDJPY
USDJPY remained stable during Friday’s European session. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength after initially weakening to a two-week low. This strengthening was driven by market concerns as the US appeals court suspended the ruling blocking tariffs imposed by President Trump, prompting investors to seek the Yen as a safe-haven asset.
Positive economic data from Japan added to hopes that the Bank of Japan will further increase interest rates. Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to receive support ahead of the PCE inflation data release. If US inflation data exceeds expectations, USDJPY could rise. Conversely, disappointing figures could lead to a decline in this pair.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq is still under pressure during the European session, despite recording a 10% surge throughout May and a 2.3% increase over the past week, thanks to the technology sector. However, it dropped 0.1% on Friday morning as market concerns about the reversal of Trump-era tariffs reignited uncertainties surrounding global trade.
The Nasdaq could face renewed pressure tonight if global trade uncertainties continue to cloud the market.
