The United States dollar is experiencing pressure at the start of the European trading session on Thursday (February 20, 2025). There hasn’t been any significant market-moving event, and attention remains focused on the ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the import tariff policies that President Donald Trump intends to implement.
In addition, economic data from the U.S. being released tonight will also affect market movements. Here is the data from Trading Central:
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- U.S. unemployment claims data (Feb/15) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 220K compared to the previous 213K.
- Philadelphia region manufacturing index data (Feb); forecast 18 compared to the previous 44.3.
GOLD
As anticipated, the price of Gold (XAUUSD) has shattered its all-time high, reaching $2,954.81 per troy ounce. Compared to Wednesday’s close, Gold increased by $21.74 or 217.4 pips. This movement reflects positive sentiment for Gold as negotiations for peace between Russia and Ukraine have failed.
Furthermore, the rise in Gold prices is supported by the expectation that central banks around the world will continue to accumulate this precious metal as part of their foreign reserves, given the uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook, particularly from trade war risks.
During tonight’s trading session, there is potential for Gold to rise further, potentially breaking its all-time high again if the U.S. economic data is released adversely, in other words, if unemployment claims rise above the forecast, while the manufacturing index comes in lower.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) have been fluctuating within the range of $71.72 – $72.32 per barrel at the start of the European trading session. Yesterday, Oil managed to record three consecutive days of gains due to the failed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
This means that supply from Russia is unlikely to flood the market in the near term. This sentiment is expected to continue influencing Oil movements in tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD rose to 1.04422 at the start of the European trading session, even though Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released lower than the forecast.
This movement indicates that the U.S. dollar is under pressure, so there is potential for EURUSD to rise again if the U.S. economic data comes in worse than the forecast.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD increased at the beginning of the European trading session, reaching 1.26154. GBPUSD remains close to its two-month peak due to positive sentiment from the release of better-than-expected economic growth and labor market data.
These two pieces of data suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to cut interest rates again in the near future. Meanwhile, if U.S. economic data is released worse than the forecast tonight, the dollar could face further declines, providing room for GBPUSD to rise even higher.
USDJPY
USDJPY plummeted more than 1,500 points (150 pips) to 149.948 at the start of the European trading session. The Yen is currently strong as March approaches, marking the end of the fiscal year in Japan, causing many companies, institutional investors, and financial institutions to repatriate funds and assets from abroad, thus strengthening the yen.
Therefore, if U.S. economic data is released worse than the forecast tonight, USDJPY may face further pressure.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq fell at the beginning of the European trading session, hitting 22,140. Nasdaq remains close to its all-time high of 22,318 reached last Tuesday.
In light of the unsuccessful peace negotiations, there is a potential for Nasdaq to face profit-taking actions during tonight’s trading. Additionally, market participants are also awaiting developments related to Trump’s import tariff policies.
