Government shutdown in the United States has led to delays in the release of several economic data starting from last Thursday. Today, Friday (October 3, 2025), the release of the US non-farm payrolls data is likely to be postponed as well.
Despite this, significant movements have been noted due to the shutdown and comments from Fed Dallas President Lorie Logan. He mentioned that the rate cut in September was timely to prevent labor market deterioration, but moving forward, he emphasized the need for caution.
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Logan even seemed reluctant to lower interest rates again. This sentiment will likely influence market movements during the European trading session, alongside the economic data releases. Here are the data points from Trading Central:
- Eurozone producer price index (PPI) for month-on-month/September at 16:00 WIB; forecast 0% vs previous 0.4%.
- Eurozone producer price index (PPI) for year-on-year/September at 16:00 WIB; forecast -0.3% vs previous 0.2%.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) exhibited considerable volatility before closing Thursday’s trading at $3,855.85 per troy ounce. The metal fell nearly $10 or 100 pips as a result of profit-taking, after previously hitting an all-time high around $3,896 per troy ounce.
Fed Logan’s remarks prompted the profit-taking activity. Considering the price remains close to record highs, there is potential for continued profit-taking during European trading.
Especially with the weekend approaching, the US Senate is set to vote on a budget agreement to end the shutdown.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) dropped by $1.12 to $60.66 per barrel on Thursday’s trading. Oil has fallen for five consecutive days and reached its lowest level in four months.
Concerns over oversupply have fueled the decline in oil prices. It is known that OPEC+ plans to increase its production level again. Additionally, oil exports from Kurdistan, Iraq, have resumed via Turkey.
On the other hand, demand from China remains weak, and there are concerns that US demand may decrease as well. The combination of rising supply and weakening demand puts ongoing pressure on oil prices, which may further impact the European trading session.
EURUSD
EURUSD fell 142 points (14.2 pips) to 1.17139 during Thursday’s trading, following a volatile performance. Fed Logan’s comments boosted the US dollar, placing additional pressure on the EURUSD.
Pressure on this currency pair may increase if the eurozone PPI data is released below forecast. If PPI declines, inflation pressure as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) may also fall, thereby allowing the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider a rate cut.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD dropped by 380 points (38 pips) to 1.34328 during Thursday’s trading, breaking a four-day upward streak. The pair experienced profit-taking following Fed Logan’s remarks that bolstered the US dollar.
In the absence of significant economic data releases from the UK, continued profit-taking may be likely.
USDJPY
Fed Logan’s statement regarding the need for caution in interest rate cuts resulted in USDJPY rising 181 points (18.1 pips) to 147.181 on Thursday.
This increase halted a sharp decline over the previous four days during which USDJPY fell more than 2,700 points (270 pips). Given the steep drop over four days and the positive catalyst for the US dollar, there is potential for USDJPY to rally again.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq continues to advance, breaking its all-time high yet again today at 25,187. The index has overlooked the negative impacts of the US government shutdown. Market participants recall the Nasdaq’s performance during the shutdown that occurred between late 2018 and early 2019. It dropped initially but then continued to soar afterwards.
This historical movement is one of the factors driving the Nasdaq’s upward trajectory this week.
