The market is showing a tendency for stability at the start of the European trading session (March 17, 2025) after experiencing significant volatility last week. A larger movement is possible in tonight’s trading as it responds to the upcoming economic data from the United States.
Here’s the latest data from Trading Central:
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- New York manufacturing activity (March) at 19:30 WIB; forecast 6 compared to the previous 5.7
- US retail sales (year-on-year/February) at 19:30 WIB; forecast 3.5% against the prior 4.2%
GOLD
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) increased at the start of the European session, reaching a daily high of US$ 2,997.28 per troy ounce. Gold had hit a peak of US$ 3,004 last week, marking its highest record ever before facing a correction.
Gold continues to receive positive sentiment from the expanding trade war risks and the economic slowdown in the United States. Thus, if tonight’s economic data from the US comes in lower than forecast, there is potential for Gold to gain additional positive momentum.
OIL
The price of Oil (CLS10) reversed its gains after reaching a daily high of US$ 68.35 per barrel. The rising price of Oil is attributed to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, as the United States continues its attacks on Houthi forces until they cease their assaults on shipping routes.
On another note, China has released more stimulus to invigorate its economy, which could potentially increase Oil demand. This positive sentiment is likely to influence Oil movements in tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD climbed at the beginning of the European session, reaching a daily high of 1.09042. The pair benefited from positive sentiment after the political party in the German parliament reached an agreement on fiscal reforms proposed by Friedrich Merz, who is soon to be appointed as Chancellor.
These fiscal reforms are expected to boost Germany’s economic growth and subsequently lift the European economy. This optimism is likely to affect EURUSD movements in tonight’s trading. If US data is released below the forecast, there exists a possibility for EURUSD to gain more positive momentum.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD also saw an upswing at the start of the European session, hitting a daily high of 1.29573. Compared to the Friday close, GBPUSD increased by 215 points (21.5 pips), inching closer to its highest level in the past four months.
The US dollar is currently facing pressure from the risk of an economic slowdown. Furthermore, last Friday’s data indicated declining consumer sentiment, which suggests increasing pessimism among consumers regarding the economic outlook.
Given this scenario, should tonight’s economic data from the US be lower than the forecast, it is likely that the US dollar will face additional pressure, serving as positive sentiment for GBPUSD.
USDJPY
USDJPY has retraced to 148.460 after earlier rising to 149.096 this morning. This movement indicates that the US dollar is under pressure. If US economic data is released lower than the forecast tonight, the downward pressure on USDJPY may intensify.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index has been moving within a volatile range of 19,304 to 19,686 at the onset of the European trading session. The Nasdaq remains in the negative territory, primarily due to the widened risks from the trade war and the economic slowdown in the US; hence, if tonight’s economic data is worse than the forecast, the pressure is likely to increase significantly.
