The escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to overshadow the global financial markets. President Donald Trump has taken to his Truth Social platform to issue threats towards Iran’s leadership, stating that “our patience is running thin” and demanding their “unconditional surrender!”
This situation is likely to cause increased volatility in price movements as the market braces for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision announcement later tonight. Furthermore, U.S. building permit data set to be released at 19:30 WIB may serve as a market catalyst.
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Here’s the data from Trading Central:
U.S. building permits at 19:30 WIB; forecast -1.5% vs previous -4%.
U.S. oil stockpiles at 21:30 WIB; forecast – vs previous 1.504M.
The Fed’s interest rate announcement at 01:00 WIB; forecast 4.5% vs previous 4.5%.
GOLD
Gold prices hovered within a narrow range during the European session, with a low around $3,370 and a high near $3,399. This reflects the cautious attitude of market participants who are waiting for the latest information regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. While the U.S. central bank is expected to maintain its current interest rate, the market remains focused on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the policy meeting.
In addition to interest rates, gold prices may also be influenced by U.S. building permit data scheduled for release tonight. This data is projected to show better results compared to the previous period. The combination of monetary policy expectations along with this significant economic data could trigger heightened volatility in gold prices leading up to the U.S. trading session.
OIL
Oil prices experienced a slight correction to $73.73 per barrel after previously hitting a high of $75.52 per barrel. Support for prices continues to stem from rising concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, following President Donald Trump’s indications of possible military involvement against Iran.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key factor driving market anxiety. Threats to the stability of global oil supplies, particularly from strategic regions like the Strait of Hormuz, may further fuel a rally in oil prices during tonight’s trading session.
EURUSD
EURUSD saw a slight strengthening during the European session, reaching 1.1523 after enduring sharp pressure due to the strengthening U.S. Dollar, which has regained status as a safe-haven asset amid escalating global geopolitical tensions. This scenario reflects market caution in advance of several key economic agendas.
Current focus is directed towards the upcoming U.S. building permit data scheduled for later tonight, alongside the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement in the early hours. Although the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, the statements made post-announcement will be a primary concern for the market. These two catalysts are likely to induce high volatility in the EURUSD movement in the near term.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD strengthened to a high of 1.3476 during the European session, but this gain was stymied after U.K. inflation data (CPI) was released at 3.4%, which was lower than the market forecast of 3.5%. This outcome raised concerns that inflationary pressures are easing, potentially diminishing expectations for further tightening of monetary policy from the Bank of England.
Looking ahead, market attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement due for release in the early hours. Despite the benchmark rate likely remaining the same, market participants will be keenly observing the economic projections and policy guidance provided by the Fed. The combination of these catalysts is expected to significantly increase GBPUSD volatility.
USDJPY
USDJPY has fallen from the high of 145.437 reached during the Asian session to 144.854 in the European session. This decline occurred in tandem with a weakening U.S. Dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement, which is a primary focus for market participants.
The Fed is anticipated to keep its benchmark interest rate steady, but the market will concentrate on policy statements and economic projections following the announcement. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also significant catalysts that could provoke heightened volatility in USDJPY tonight.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq recorded a rise to 21,838 during the European session, amid a cautious market atmosphere as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement. The current market sentiment is still clouded with uncertainty, especially against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Recent statements from President Donald Trump hinting at potential U.S. military involvement with Iran have added to investor anxiety. This situation could prompt renewed risk-off actions, possibly suppressing interest in risk assets and opening up opportunities for downward pressure on the Nasdaq in the near future.
