The financial markets are experiencing moderate stability during the European trading session on Wednesday (August 20, 2025), but later tonight, there is potential for more significant movements. This is due to the release of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting minutes (FOMC minutes) scheduled for Thursday at 1:00 AM WIB.
This release could reveal whether the majority of the Fed’s board members remain cautious regarding interest rate cuts or if they are adopting a more dovish stance. Following the FOMC minutes release, attention will shift to the Jackson Hole Symposium in the United States, which will take place from August 21 to 23.
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This major event has the potential to incite significant movements, as several central bank governors, including Fed Governor Jerome Powell, will be speaking. Markets will be looking for clues related to the Fed’s long-term interest rate outlook.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) rose at the start of the European trading session, reaching a daily high of $3,327.46 per troy ounce. Compared to Tuesday’s closing, Gold gained over $12 or 120 pips. Earlier, Gold had faced declines for four consecutive days, pressured by concerns that Powell would not adopt a highly dovish tone during the Jackson Hole meeting.
The pressure on Gold could intensify tonight if the FOMC minutes indicate that Fed members remain cautious about lowering interest rates.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) climbed to $62.70 per barrel at the beginning of the European trading session before being adjusted downward. Oil had previously hit its lowest level in two and a half months, prompting a buying response.
However, negative sentiment continues to overshadow Oil. The recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier in the week was positive. This diminishes the likelihood of additional sanctions against the Russian energy sector, reducing global supply disruption risks and contributing negative sentiment towards Oil.
The release of U.S. oil stock data at 9:30 PM WIB may act as a market mover. If the data shows a significant increase, Oil may face further downward pressure.
EURUSD
EURUSD fluctuated within a range of 1.16220 – 1.16492 up to the early European trading session. This currency pair faced negative sentiment after data from Germany revealed a year-on-year producer price index (PPI) inflation of -1.5% for July, lower than the forecast of -1.4% and the previous month’s -1.3%.
The pressure on EURUSD is likely to increase if the FOMC minutes indicate that the Fed remains cautious in cutting interest rates.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD turned upward to 1.35092 at the start of the European trading session after previously dropping to 1.34617.
The rise was triggered by data indicating that inflation in the UK grew by 3.8% YoY in July, the highest level since January 2024. This release bolstered market confidence that the BoE would not cut interest rates in the near term, positively affecting GBPUSD. However, if the upcoming FOMC minutes reflect the Fed’s cautious stance, GBPUSD may again feel downward pressure.
USDJPY
USDJPY experienced volatility within the range of 147.140 – 147.816 early in the European trading session. The volatility was influenced by data from Japan showing that exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year (YoY) in July, slightly worse than the forecasted 2.5% decline according to Trading Central. On the other hand, Japanese machinery orders surged by 7.6% YoY, exceeding the forecast of 5.4% YoY.
These mixed results caused volatility in USDJPY, but positive sentiment may return if the FOMC minutes suggest that the Fed remains cautious about interest rate cuts.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq fell at the start of the European session, hitting a daily low of 23,334. The decline in technology sector stocks was the main factor behind Nasdaq’s plummet.
There is a potential for this downward trend to continue due to profit-taking, considering that the Nasdaq has sharply risen this year and repeatedly set all-time highs. This could be the case if the FOMC minutes still seem less dovish.
