The US Dollar Index has rallied again, reaching the 100 mark at the start of trading on Thursday (November 20, 2025). This increase follows the latest release of the FOMC minutes, which highlighted divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the necessity of a rate cut. Some officials are concerned about a weakening labor market, while others believe inflation remains too elevated to warrant easing policies.
This uncertainty has led to a decline in market expectations for a December rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a rate decrease is now at 30%, down from 50% the previous day.
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This sentiment may influence market movements during the European trading session. Traders should pay attention to the release of significant economic data. Here are the details from Trading Central:
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German Producer Price Index (PPI) (Oct/year-on-year) at 14:00 WIB; forecast -1.6% vs previous -1.7%
GOLD
Gold prices showed volatility but managed to register a slight increase of $7.6 to $4,077.49 per troy ounce in the previous trading session. As the European session approaches, gold remains fluctuating within the range of $4,041–$4,110 per troy ounce.
The diminishing expectations for a Fed rate cut exert additional pressure on gold. The strengthening US dollar also makes gold less appealing for holders of other currencies, as its price becomes more expensive, leading to a reduction in demand. These sentiments are anticipated to persist and affect gold movements in the European session.
OIL
Oil prices plummeted to $59.4 per barrel on Wednesday. This downturn arose after the US pushed for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising speculation that sanctions against Russia might be lifted. If this occurs, oil supply could rise again, exacerbating concerns over global supply surpluses.
During the European session, this sentiment is expected to continue weighing on oil prices and open up possibilities for further declines.
EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair fell by 387 points (38.7 pips) to 1.15360, marking a four-day decline in yesterday’s trading, a trend that continues today. The strengthening US dollar, as expectations for a December Fed rate cut fade, is putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
In the European trading session, this sentiment is likely to continue influencing price movements. Attention should be paid to the release of German PPI data; if the figures remain negative and near the forecast of -1.6%, the EUR/USD pair will likely be under negative pressure.
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair dropped by 915 points (91.5 pips) to 1.30529 during trading on Wednesday, also recording four consecutive days of losses. As the European session starts, GBP/USD is attempting a rebound, but the potential for recovery appears limited.
Slowing inflation growth in the UK bolsters expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut rates soon. This sentiment adds pressure on the pound and is expected to overshadow the GBP/USD pair’s movement throughout the European session.
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair surged sharply by 1,660 points (166 pips) to 157.089, reaching its highest level since mid-January 2025 in yesterday’s trading. The strength of the US dollar is the main driver, while the yen continues to weaken after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama affirmed that there is no discussion regarding currency intervention in her meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
Uncertainty regarding policy direction between the BoJ and the Japanese government continues to put pressure on the yen. These sentiments are expected to keep affecting the USD/JPY pair in the European trading session.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq rose by 432 points to 24,958 in yesterday’s trading, driven by a surge in Nvidia’s stock after its earnings report showed significant growth and higher-than-expected revenue projections for the fourth quarter.
This positive sentiment is likely to continue boosting Nasdaq movements during the European session, although market volatility remains a concern.
