The market exhibited relatively stable movements during the European trading session on Thursday (March 6, 2025). However, there is potential for heightened volatility tonight, responding to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement and data releases from the United States. Below are details from Trading Central:
- ECB deposit facility rate (Mar) at 20:15 WIB; forecast 2.5% vs. previous 2.75%
- US unemployment claims data (Mar/01) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 250K vs. previous 242K
GOLD
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) fell to USD 2,891.46 per troy ounce at the start of the European trading session. Compared to the closing price on Wednesday, Gold declined by USD 27.72 or 277.2 pips.
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The rise in Gold prices was stunted as the US dollar index plummeted to a 4-month low. This was largely attributed to President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone an increase in automotive tariffs by one month.
Nonetheless, amidst high uncertainty moving forward and if the US dollar remains under pressure, there is potential for Gold to receive positive sentiment once again, especially if the unemployment claims data tonight comes in lower than the forecast.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) have been trading within the range of USD 66.14 – USD 66.88 per barrel leading into the European trading session. The OPEC+ plan to ramp up oil production starting next month, coupled with the threat of a global economic slowdown due to trade tensions, has led to a drop in oil prices.
These sentiments are likely to continue to influence oil movements during tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD continues to trade near a 4-month high at 1.08223 as the European trading session begins, following a surge of more than 400 pips over the last three days.
Attention tonight will be focused on the ECB’s monetary policy announcement. If the ECB cuts interest rates but indicates future cuts will hinge on economic data, EURUSD could see an additional boost in sentiment.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD saw a reversal, dropping to 1.28655 at the start of the European trading session after peaking at 1.29234 earlier today. This level marks the highest point since November 11, and the decline in GBPUSD may be attributed to profit taking.
GBPUSD has also experienced a sharp rise since the beginning of the week. In addition to benefiting from EURUSD’s increase, this currency pair has received favorable sentiment from the release of a series of UK economic data, indicating the BoE may not lower interest rates in the near future.
Furthermore, the UK and the US are likely to reach a trade agreement, preventing any increase in import tariffs. This positive sentiment is expected to continue supporting GBPUSD in tonight’s trading.
USDJPY
USDJPY fell to 147.697 at the start of the European trading session. Compared to the Wednesday close, USDJPY decreased by 1.149 points (114.9 pips) and is now at a 4-month low.
This movement highlights a weakened US dollar, and pressure on USDJPY may intensify if the US unemployment claims data is released higher than the forecast.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index showed a decline at the beginning of the European trading session, reaching 20,365. This decrease indicates a negative sentiment for the Nasdaq, despite President Trump’s delay in raising automotive tariffs.
Market participants are still wary of trade war risks, and signs of an economic slowdown in the US are becoming increasingly apparent. If the unemployment claims data is higher than the forecast, the Nasdaq may face additional downward pressure.
