Expectations for a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve intensified at the start of trading on Tuesday (November 25, 2025). Christopher Weller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, affirmed his support for a rate cut in December, citing the persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market.
Earlier, the likelihood of a December rate cut had climbed to 70% following dovish remarks from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams. This sentiment has now strengthened further to 80%, significantly up from last week’s level of just 40%, according to CME FedWatch.
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The combination of dovish signals from both of these Fed officials is expected to remain a key driver of market movements during today’s European session.
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Gold prices surged by $69.6 to reach $4,134.34 per troy ounce at the start of the week, with this upward momentum continuing today. The increase in the expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, bolstered by the dovish comments from John Williams and Christopher Weller, serves as the main catalyst for the spike in gold prices.
This positive sentiment is likely to continue lifting gold during European trading.
OIL (CLS10)
Oil prices rose to $58.88 per barrel on Monday, fueled by optimism that a Fed rate cut could enhance the U.S. economic outlook and boost energy demand. This sentiment was reinforced by reports of declining Russian oil exports.
However, as European trading approaches, oil prices have turned downwards. Concerns about potential oversupply have resurfaced as the prospect of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine raises fears that lifting sanctions on Russia could increase global oil supply.
This sentiment is expected to weigh on oil prices during the European session.
EURUSD
EURUSD recorded a slight increase of 59 points to 1.15189 on Monday, breaking a seven-day losing streak. However, leading into the European session, the pair faced renewed pressure after temporarily rising to 1.15303.
The movement of the U.S. dollar is a dominant factor for EURUSD. With rising expectations for a Fed rate cut, the U.S. dollar may weaken, potentially allowing EURUSD to regain strength during the European session.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD concluded Monday’s trading with a modest gain of 23 points to 1.30984 but faced pressure again ahead of the European session. In the absence of significant economic data releases from the UK, the direction of GBPUSD will rely on the movements of the U.S. dollar.
Given the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut, the U.S. dollar may weaken, suggesting that GBPUSD still has a chance to strengthen.
USDJPY
USDJPY rose by 468 points to 156.840 during Monday’s trading, fluctuating between 156.555 and 156.984 as the European session approaches. The yen has gained positive sentiment following Takuji Aida, an adviser to the Japanese Prime Minister, stating that the government is preparing currency intervention to stabilize the yen and mitigate the prolonged negative impact of yen depreciation on the Japanese economy.
Government intervention is providing positive sentiment for the yen, indicating potential pressure on USDJPY during the European session.
NASDAQ
Nasdaq surged by 614 points to 24,962 on Monday, primarily driven by increased expectations of a Fed rate cut that sparked a rebound in technology stocks, a sector sensitive to interest rate changes.
This sentiment is expected to continue supporting the Nasdaq’s strength during the European session.
