The United States has released a series of inflation data that fell short of expectations at 19:30 WIB. The data indicates that the year-over-year PCE inflation stands at 2.7%, compared to the anticipated 2.8%, while the month-over-month PCE inflation was merely 0.2%, lower than the predicted 0.3%. Core PCE inflation also slowed down to 2.9%, against the forecast of 3%. This collection of data reaffirms a slowdown in price pressures in the US, signaling a positive outlook for the market as the inflation trend gradually approaches the Federal Reserve’s target. This condition immediately drove gold prices up to $3,757 per troy ounce.
The weakness in US inflation arises amid signs of slowing economic activity, evident in both consumption and labor sectors, reinforcing market confidence that the Federal Reserve’s capacity to maintain high interest rates is becoming increasingly limited. With inflation decreasing, investors believe that the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months has opened up significantly. This aligns with previous market expectations that the Fed no longer feels the urgency to keep interest rates at a strict level for the long term.
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The impact of the data release was also felt in currency market movements. Major pairs such as GBP/USD weakened to 1.3375, while EUR/USD corrected to 1.1686, indicating that the US dollar still enjoys support on the liquidity side despite the weakness in inflation data. However, overall, the medium-term trend points towards a potential weakening of the dollar if expectations for interest rate cuts become stronger. The market will now await further guidance from statements made by Fed officials in the upcoming weeks to gauge how aggressively the central bank may loosen its monetary policy.
