The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has announced a substantial 35% increase in import tariffs on goods from Canada, effective August 1. This development indicates that the recent trade negotiations between the US and Canada failed to produce a favorable agreement before the deadline of July 9.
Market attention is now shifting to the European Union, which has yet to show any indications of reaching a trade agreement with the US. Investors are particularly anxious to see if the EU will receive any correspondence from Trump regarding the forthcoming tariff hikes.
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This sentiment is likely to influence market activity during trading hours on Friday (July 11, 2025).
GOLD
The increase in import tariffs on Canada has sparked a significant rise in gold prices, reaching a daily high of $3,346.13 per troy ounce during the early European trading session. Compared to Thursday’s closing prices, gold has surged by over $22, equating to a rise of 220 pips.
As one of the largest trading partners of the United States, any tariff increments on Canadian goods could have significant repercussions for the economic sectors in both countries. Additionally, Trump has also imposed a 50% import tariff on copper from all nations, with Canada being the second-largest exporter of copper to the US.
In response to Trump’s copper tariffs, Canadian Minister of Industry, Melanie Joly, has firmly declared that Canada will resist these tariffs. This situation raises the risk of a trade war, thereby boosting the demand for gold as a safe haven investment.
If the European Union is also to receive a letter from Trump about potential tariff hikes, gold may experience additional favorable sentiments.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) have exhibited volatility, trading within the range of $66.49 to $67.18 per barrel as early European trading commenced. The oil market remains overshadowed by negative sentiments stemming from indications of declining demand in the US, as new data reveals a significant increase in US stock levels.
Moreover, there are growing concerns about a global economic slowdown resulting from Trump’s import tariff policies, especially given that as of July 9, only three countries have managed to come to terms on trade agreements. Such sentiments will likely continue to influence oil market activity during tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD managed to recover from its earlier losses after hitting a daily low of 1.16646. This movement reflects market participants eagerly awaiting an announcement from Trump regarding potential new tariffs from the European Union in the near future.
Should this occur, the EURUSD may face a substantial downturn since several EU countries have expressed strong opposition to the prospect of rising tariffs from the US.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD experienced a decline at the beginning of the European trading session, reaching a daily low of 1.35284. The pair is being pressured downwards after data from the UK indicated that the economic growth (gross domestic product/GDP) contracted by -0.1% month-on-month (MoM) in May, which was worse than the Trading Central forecast of 0.1%.
This marked the second consecutive month of GDP contraction for the UK, following an April report of -0.3% MoM. These figures illustrate a deteriorating economic landscape for the UK in the second quarter of 2025, significantly increasing the pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to consider cutting interest rates. However, such a reduction will not come without challenges, as inflation in the UK remains high. A cut could potentially exacerbate inflationary pressures, presenting a dilemma for the BoE that negatively impacts GBPUSD.
USDJPY
USDJPY trimmed its earlier gains at the start of European trading, after previously rising by over 1,000 points (100 pips) to 147.182. The renewed risk of a trade war is contributing to the currency pair’s volatility, as both the dollar and yen are viewed as safe haven assets.
However, the US dollar seems to hold the advantage this time, as Trump is prepared to raise import tariffs on Japan, with US-Japan trade negotiations still unresolved.
These sentiments will influence USDJPY’s activity throughout tonight’s trading session.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index remains near its daily low of 22,831 as early European trading begins. The index is experiencing a setback due to profit taking following Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs on Canadian goods.
Should tariffs on the European Union also be revealed, Nasdaq’s profit taking could become even more pronounced.
