Recent data from the United States (US) released on Thursday indicated that unemployment claims surged to 236,000 for the week ending December 6. This figure greatly exceeds the forecast of 205,000 and the previous week’s count of 192,000. Such data signals a significant weakening in the US labor market, prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) cutting interest rates more than once in 2026, adopting a more dovish stance.
The US dollar has already been under pressure following the Fed’s official decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% and announcing a quantitative easing (QE) program featuring the purchase of $40 billion in bonds. The combination of lax monetary policy and deteriorating labor market indicators keeps the US dollar under significant strain.
مُستَحسَن
مُستَحسَن
مُستَحسَن
مُستَحسَن
These sentiments will continue to influence market movements during the European session. Today’s important economic data releases also merit attention. Here is the data from Trading Central:
-
UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth (month-on-month/October) at 14:00 WIB; forecast 0% vs previous -0.1%.
ذهب
Gold (XAUUSD) prices surged by $51.04 or 510.4 pips to $4,279.19 per troy ounce during Thursday’s trading, marking a three-day increase. Ahead of the European trading session, Gold saw slight pressure due to profit-taking after a sharp rise of more than $50.
Nonetheless, the fundamental sentiment remains strongly supportive of Gold. The weakening unemployment claims in the US open the door for a more aggressive rate cut from the Fed next year. Moreover, the recent rate cuts and the implementation of QE continue to serve as primary catalysts supporting Gold prices.
This positive sentiment may further propel Gold’s strength during the European trading session.
زيت
Oil prices (CLS10) initially plunged to $56.99 per barrel before cutting losses and closing at $57.90 on Thursday. The decline was correlated with increasing optimism surrounding peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, potentially reopening Russian oil supplies to the global market.
However, as the European session approaches, Oil is attempting to rebound. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised the global supply forecast to 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year—slightly lower than last month’s forecast. OPEC also maintains its outlook for supply and global demand, indicating a relatively balanced market.
Conflicting sentiments may keep Oil’s movements volatile in the European session, with a tendency to rise in response to the latest IEA projections.
اليورو مقابل الدولار الأميركي
EURUSD strengthened significantly by 458 points or 45.8 pips to 1.17387, marking a two-day gaining streak and reaching its highest level since October 1. The US dollar’s weakness was driven by increasing expectations regarding multiple Fed rate cuts next year, following the deterioration of the US labor market and the implementation of QE.
EURUSD’s movements will still be greatly influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar. As pressure on the dollar persists, this pair may continue to maintain an upward trend in the European session.
الجنيه الاسترليني مقابل الدولار الأميركي
GBPUSD briefly rose to 1.34380 before retracting slightly and closed Thursday’s trading with a modest gain around 1.33800. Today, GBPUSD resumes its upward trend prior to the release of UK GDP data, while the US dollar remains pressured by expectations of Fed monetary easing and QE policies.
In the European session, attention turns to the UK GDP release. Should the actual data exceed forecasts, GBPUSD may continue its ascent.
دولار أمريكي/ين ياباني
USDJPY fell by 455 points to 155.501 during Thursday’s trading. The yen continues to receive robust support from statements made by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized that Japan’s inflation is nearing its target, opening up prospects for a rate hike in the near future.
Simultaneously, the US dollar remains under pressure due to QE and the potential for further rate cuts.
This combination of sentiments suggests USDJPY may face additional pressure during the European trading session.
ناسداك
The Nasdaq index initially slumped to 25,385 before slightly climbing by 33 points to 25,833 during Thursday’s trading, bolstered by expectations for more aggressive Fed rate cuts next year.
However, as the European session draws near, the index comes under renewed pressure from growing concerns over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Oracle’s quarterly earnings falling short of Wall Street estimates triggered sell-offs in AI-based stocks and a rotation into cyclical stocks more sensitive to economic recovery.
This sentiment could continue to weigh on the Nasdaq’s movements during the European trading session.
