The markets exhibited volatility during the European trading session on December 16, 2025. The fundamental factors influencing the market remain largely unchanged. The Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, along with the quantitative easing program involving the purchase of $40 billion in bonds, continues to impact market dynamics.
Market attention is now directed towards the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data from the United States, set to be released tonight. This information will serve as a critical indicator for traders regarding the Fed’s interest rate policies for 2026. Despite this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that only one rate cut is anticipated.
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Here are the data from Trading Central:
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Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) US (October) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 55K vs previous 119K
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Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) US (November) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 25K
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) fell by $33.11 to $4,271.50 per troy ounce during the European trading session. This decline is attributed to ongoing profit-taking as the release of NFP data approaches.
Conversely, Gold continues to receive positive sentiment from the Fed’s interest rate cuts and the QE program, which historically support price increases, similar to the scenario during the 2008 global financial crisis.
In tonight’s trading, market focus will be on the NFP data release, which will determine the future direction of the Fed’s interest rate policy. If the actual data falls short of forecasts, market optimism will likely grow regarding multiple rate cuts by the Fed next year, potentially leading to a reversal in Gold prices.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) decreased by $0.99 to $55.67 per barrel during the European session. Price pressure is still stemming from rising optimism regarding peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
US officials have indicated that an agreement between the two nations may be nearing, which could restart Russian oil exports to the global market if sanctions are lifted.
Additional pressure is reinforced by OPEC+’s decision to revive production and increasing output from non-OPEC producers, raising concerns about oversupply in the market.
This negative sentiment may continue to weigh on oil prices during the American trading session.
EURUSD
EURUSD rose by 130 points or 13 pips to 1.17641 during the European trading session. The US dollar remains under pressure from the Fed’s interest rate cuts and QE program.
In the US trading session, the NFP data release will be the main focus. Should the actual data be lower than the forecast, market optimism about the Fed potentially enacting more than one rate cut next year will strengthen, possibly leading to an increase in EURUSD as the dollar faces further pressure.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD climbed by 551 points or 55 pips to 1.34266 during the European session. The October employment change data from the UK showed -17,000, which was better than the forecast of -60,000 and the previous figure of -22,000, indicating a strength in the UK labor market and providing positive sentiment for GBPUSD.
Tonight, the NFP data will also be critical. If the actual figures are lower than predicted, indicating a weakening labor market in the US, GBPUSD may continue to rise as the US dollar faces additional pressure.
USDJPY
USDJPY dropped by 451 points or 45 pips to 154.683 in the European trading session. The yen strengthened on market optimism that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates this Friday. Additionally, the US dollar remains under pressure from interest rate cuts and the QE program.
During the American session, the focus will shift to the NFP data release. If actual data is lower than the forecast, the US dollar may face additional downward pressure, suggesting that USDJPY could continue to decline.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq index briefly fell to 24,872 but managed to recover and trade around 25,000 during the European session. This recovery is attributed to potential short-covering after a sharp decline ahead of the NFP data release.
The upcoming NFP data will be crucial; if actual figures are lower than forecasts, leading to heightened market optimism regarding the Fed’s potential for several rate cuts next year, the Nasdaq may reverse its trend.
